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Science 3 October 1997: Vol. 278. no. 5335, pp. 144 - 145 DOI: 10.1126/science.278.5335.144
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Technical Comments
The Possibility of Ice on the Moon
N. J. S. Stacy et al. (1) have dealt
a blow to the hypothesis that ice deposits may exist in permanently
shadowed regions at the lunar poles. Their ground-based radar
observations detected several areas with high backscatter cross
sections and circular polarization ratios consistent with ice, but in
locations that are at least occasionally illuminated by sunlight. These
features are associated with walls and rims of small craters; the most likely explanation for their occurrence is high surface roughness at
the scale of the radar wavelength. Mercury has regions with similarly
anomalous radar properties located near its poles, in permanently
shadowed floors of large craters (2). These anomalies have
been interpreted as resulting from ices accumulated by cometary and
meteoritic bombardment (3). The results of Stacy et
al. imply an alternative explanation: They may be a result of a
difference in texture rather than composition. Such a difference could
be caused by their thermal environment.
The sunlit and permanently shadowed regions of Mercury are,
respectively, the hottest and coldest surfaces in the solar system that
have silicate composition and are subject to meteoroid bombardment. Their responses to impacts should differ accordingly. Hot target material will yield a higher proportion of impact melt, while cold
material should have a greater tendency toward brittle fracture, producing fragments that are more angular. Thus, one may expect mature
regoliths developed at such different temperatures to have different
radar scattering properties, with the colder surface having higher
roughness and radar albedo. It is not clear whether this effect would
suffice to account for the magnitude of the radar anomalies observed on
Mercury, but this hypothesis could be experimentally tested by
hypervelocity impacts into silicate targets at extreme temperatures.
S. J. Weidenschilling
Planetary Science Institute, 620 North 6th Avenue, Tucson, AZ
85705, USA E-mail: sjw{at}psi.edu
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24 June 1997; accepted 28 August
1997
We would like to clarify our understanding of events
associated with the 1992 Arecibo observations of the lunar south pole (1) and the Clementine bistatic radar experiment
(2). The Clementine team was fully aware of the Arecibo
observations before conducting the bistatic radar experiment. Although
interpretation of the Arecibo observations was inconclusive, it had
been suggested that areas showing high circular polarization ratios
(CPRs), observed below the sun line inside the crater containing the
south pole, could be underlain by ice (3). Surface roughness
was an alternative explanation for the observed high CPR. The
Clementine bistatic radar experiment was designed to resolve this
ambiguity. Observations over a range of bistatic (phase) angle, ,
can distinguish diffuse scattering caused by wavelength-scale roughness
from the highly directional coherent backscatter opposition effect
(CBOE), indicative of low-loss targets (for example, ice). This
measurement cannot be made from ground-based telescopes. The rationale
for bistatic observations is well documented (4).
Clementine observed a CPR peak around = 0 near the
south pole, consistent with the presence of ice at the surface. This peak was not observed anywhere else on the lunar surface and was isolated to an area within 60 km of the south pole. The radar footprint
was fairly broad, and included areas outside of permanent shadow; thus,
only a tiny fraction of this area could be underlain by ice. The method
used (2) to estimate the area of putative ice deposits is
similar to that applied to the polar deposits on Mercury
(5). An upper limit on the area of ice deposits of 80 to 135 km2 was estimated, assuming contributions to the scattered
signal from the total observed area of 45,000 km2. If the
estimate is made strictly from the surface area that can contribute to
the observed CPR peak (that is, the area over which the range of = ±1°), the area of possible ice deposits is reduced to 7 to 10 km2. Given uncertainties in the properties of the putative
ice deposits, this estimate can be reconciled with areas showing high
CPR in the Arecibo images. We should have been clearer in our
presentation in order to avoid misleading interpretation. The high
spatial resolution of the Arecibo images show that any possible ice is small and patchy, as we suggested (2). Stacy et
al. suggest that Clementine and Arecibo measurements are in
disagreement (1), but meaningful comparisons can be made
only for regions observed at similar incidence and , normalized to
the same area.
A result reported by us (2) for a specific area (80° to
82° south latitude), angle of incidence 84°, ± 1 degree,
CPR 0.36 ± 0.01, is in agreement (3 ) with the Arecibo near
south pole (CPR 0.43 ± ?)
values, given that no error was
stated (1). This correct Clementine near south pole CPR
value was not used by Stacy et al. (1). The
Arecibo and Clementine north pole values reported (1, 2)
show disagreement. Because Arecibo cannot measure CPR as a function of
, direct comparisons between the data sets must be done carefully.
The Clementine north and south pole values internally agree (3 ), as
do the reported Arecibo measurements, although no error is reported
(1) except for ± 1° at the south pole. The
Clementine values used (1) were not compared in a consistent
manner. The actual Clementine = 0 areas are an order of magnitude
smaller than the reported (1) Arecibo areas, and in two
cases the Clementine median CPR (over 82° to 90° angle of
incidence) was compared instead of the appropriate values of ,
incidence angle, and area (1). The Arecibo and Clementine
data are fundamentally different measurements with different error
sources, one made with a spacecraft transmitter near the moon with
rapidly changing geometry (incidence angle, , illuminated surface
area) and one ground-based over a range of incidence angles at = 0. Given these inconsistencies and differences in data analysis, the
conclusion that the Clementine and Arecibo data sets do not agree is
probably incorrect.
Surface roughness was postulated to be responsible for areas of
local high CPR observed from Arecibo, because these areas are
associated with impact craters (1). But the interiors of impact craters near the poles are also the areas most likely to be
permanently shadowed. Ice, if present, must be associated with impact
craters. A majority of the high CPR patches observed from Arecibo
within 60 km of the lunar south pole are likely to be in permanent
shadow. One of the areas with highest CPR found from Arecibo is in the
deepest part of the south pole crater observable from Earth. From the
combination of Clementine and Arecibo observations, it can be shown
that this part of the crater is in permanent shadow. Ice can occur
wherever it is thermodynamically stable, on a crater wall or on the
floor. We suggest that the lower part of the south pole crater wall is
a principal source of the CPR peak observed by Clementine. There is no
a priori geological reason for the south pole crater to be any rougher
than its neighbors. Roughness will produce diffuse scattering and a
general CPR enhancement over a range of at many surface locations.
Clementine observed a CPR and SS peak centered at = 0 localized to the south pole. A comparison of the Clementine data with
physically based computations of coherent backscattering suggests that
the peak measured by Clementine is consistent with CBOE produced by
grazing incidence scattering in an area where the scatterers only cover
a fraction of the surface (6). Perhaps the strongest
evidence in this regard is the lack of a CPR peak in the Clementine
bistatic measurements of regions not in permanent shadow. These
terrains contain geological units comparable to the south polar region,
being rugged highlands, including several 20-km diameter craters. Only
the south polar pass (orbit 234) shows the CPR enhancement at = 0. This strongly suggests a controlling factor related to shadowing.
Surface roughness does not so qualify.
On Mercury, radar bright features are observed well off the pole, but
they are not assumed to be produced by the same scattering mechanism as
the polar deposits (5). This situation illustrates the
difficulty in correctly interpreting combined space- and ground-based data sets. Ground-based radar observations of Venus revealed radar "bright" regions (for example, Maxwell Montes) that were initially attributed to roughness (7, 8). Low-resolution space-based observations by Pioneer Venus suggested that some of these areas were
bright as a result of intrinsic chemical differences, not roughness
(9); finally, high-resolution bistatic observations by
Magellan showed this to be the case (10). The main weakness in the Clementine result is that the CPR peak was only observed on one
orbit, albeit the only orbit with correct geometry for detecting CBOE
at the south pole. The existence of ice will await confirmation by
another independent spacecraft (Lunar Prospector). If confirmed, we
believe that it will have been discovered by Clementine.
S. Nozette
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94551, USA
E. M. Shoemaker(*)
U.S. Geological Survey, Flagstaff, AZ 86001, USA
P. Spudis
Lunar and Planetary Institute, Houston, TX 77058, USA
C. L. Lichtenberg
Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC 20375, USA (*) Deceased
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Response: Contrary to their earlier analysis
(1), Nozette et al. now state that the magnitude
and polarization of the enhanced radar echo observed by Clementine at
the lunar south pole can be reproduced by a target of 7 to 10 km2 cross section with the radar-scattering characteristics
of pure water ice. We would not necessarily disagree with this
interpretation of their data if their measurements were made at close
to normal incidence, but we point out that, because the observation was made at an incidence angle of 85°, a geometrical correction must be
applied (2). The resulting surface area is about 400 km2, which is (barely) consistent with the Arecibo results
(3), but cannot be attributed to ice, because the observed
areas of anomalous backscatter in the Arecibo images are not
correlated with regions of permanent shadow, but with regions that
would be expected, on geological grounds, to possess high surface
roughness.
We obtained the Clementine CPR of 0.29 ( 5.4db) for = 0 for
the near south pole Clementine orbit (235) from figure 3A of the report
by Nozette et al. (1). The Arecibo value is 0.43 [table 1 of (3)]. Because almost all systematic
measurement errors in the Arecibo data will cancel out when deriving
polarization ratios, we conclude that the two CPR values differ
significantly.
It is inappropriate to compare the lunar measurements with those of
Maxwell Montes on Venus, where the early interpretations from
ground-based observations--that the enhanced radar backscatter from
Maxwell is a result of high surface roughness at wavelength scale--have
not been overturned, although subsequent studies have confirmed the
presence of a second, perhaps more exotic, scattering component
(4).
N. J. S. Stacy
Microwave Radar Division, Defence Science and
Technology, Salisbury, SA 5108 Australia
D. B. Campbell
National Astronomy and Ionosphere Center and
Department of Astronomy, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY
14853, USA
P. G. Ford
Center for Space Research, Massachusetts Institute of
Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA
REFERENCES
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S. Nozette
et al.,
Science
274,
1495
(1996)
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J. K. Harmon
et al.,
Nature
369,
213
(1994)
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N. J. S. Stacy,
D. B. Campbell,
P. G. Ford,
Science
276,
1527
(1997)
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G. H. Pettengill,
P. G. Ford,
R. A. Simpson,
ibid.
272,
1628
(1996)
.
15 August 1997; accepted 28 August 1997
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