Note to users. If you're seeing this message, it means that your browser cannot find this page's style/presentation instructions -- or possibly that you are using a browser that does not support current Web standards. Find out more about why this message is appearing, and what you can do to make your experience of our site the best it can be.
Invitrogen

Site Tools

  • AAAS
  • Subscribe
  • Feedback

Site Search

Search Advanced

Originally published in Science Express on 30 September 2004
Science 22 October 2004:
Vol. 306. no. 5696, pp. 679 - 682
DOI: 10.1126/science.1096109
Prev | Table of Contents | Next

Reports

Reconstructing Past Climate from Noisy Data

Hans von Storch,1* Eduardo Zorita,1 Julie M. Jones,1 Yegor Dimitriev,1 Fidel González-Rouco,2 Simon F. B. Tett3

Empirical reconstructions of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature in the past millennium based on multiproxy records depict small-amplitude variations followed by a clear warming trend in the past two centuries. We use a coupled atmosphere-ocean model simulation of the past 1000 years as a surrogate climate to test the skill of these methods, particularly at multidecadal and centennial time scales. Idealized proxy records are represented by simulated grid-point temperature, degraded with statistical noise. The centennial variability of the NH temperature is underestimated by the regression-based methods applied here, suggesting that past variations may have been at least a factor of 2 larger than indicated by empirical reconstructions.

1 Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Centre, Geesthacht 21502, Germany.
2 Department of Astrophysics and Atmospheric Physics, Universidad Complutense, Madrid 28040, Spain.
3 UK Meteorological Office, Hadley Centre (Reading Unit), Meteorology Building, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6BB, UK.

* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: storch{at}gkss.de

Read the Full Text


THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN CITED BY OTHER ARTICLES:
Exploring an ensemble approach to estimating skill in multiproxy palaeoclimate reconstructions.
G. van der Schrier, T. J. Osborn, K. R. Briffa, and E. R. Cook (2007)
The Holocene 17, 119-129
   Abstract »    PDF »
Comment on "Reconstructing Past Climate from Noisy Data".
E. R. Wahl, D. M. Ritson, and C. M. Ammann (2006)
Science 312, 529b
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Response to Comment on "Reconstructing Past Climate from Noisy Data".
H. von Storch, E. Zorita, J. M. Jones, F. Gonzalez-Rouco, and S. F. B. Tett (2006)
Science 312, 529c
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Changes in Surface Water Supply Across Africa with Predicted Climate Change.
M. de Wit and J. Stankiewicz (2006)
Science 311, 1917-1921
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years.
T. J. Osborn and K. R. Briffa (2006)
Science 311, 841-844
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »


ADVERTISEMENT
Click Me!

ADVERTISEMENT
Click Me!

To Advertise     Find Products

Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)