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Science 15 August 2003:
Vol. 301. no. 5635, pp. 955 - 958
DOI: 10.1126/science.1085706
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Reports

Global Trajectories of the Long-Term Decline of Coral Reef Ecosystems

John M. Pandolfi,1* Roger H. Bradbury,2 Enric Sala,3 Terence P. Hughes,4 Karen A. Bjorndal,5 Richard G. Cooke,6 Deborah McArdle,7 Loren McClenachan,3 Marah J. H. Newman,3 Gustavo Paredes,3 Robert R. Warner,8 Jeremy B. C. Jackson3,6

Degradation of coral reef ecosystems began centuries ago, but there is no global summary of the magnitude of change. We compiled records, extending back thousands of years, of the status and trends of seven major guilds of carnivores, herbivores, and architectural species from 14 regions. Large animals declined before small animals and architectural species, and Atlantic reefs declined before reefs in the Red Sea and Australia, but the trajectories of decline were markedly similar worldwide. All reefs were substantially degraded long before outbreaks of coral disease and bleaching. Regardless of these new threats, reefs will not survive without immediate protection from human exploitation over large spatial scales.

1 Department of Paleobiology, MRC-121, National Museum of Natural History, Post Office Box 37012, Smithsonian Institution, Washington, DC 20013–7012, USA.
2 Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia.
3 Center for Marine Biodiversity and Conservation, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA.
4 Centre for Coral Reef Biodiversity, School of Marine Biology, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia.
5 Archie Carr Center for Sea Turtle Research, Department of Zoology, Post Office Box 118525, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA.
6 Center for Tropical Paleoecology and Archaeology, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Box 2072, Balboa, Republic of Panama.
7 California Sea Grant, University of California Cooperative Extension, Santa Barbara, CA 93105, USA.
8 Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Marine Biology, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA.

* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: pandolfi.john{at}nmnh.si.edu

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