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Science 22 June 2001:
Vol. 292. no. 5525, pp. 2316 - 2320
DOI: 10.1126/science.1057320
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Reports

Consistent Land- and Atmosphere-Based U.S. Carbon Sink Estimates

S. W. Pacala,1* G. C. Hurtt,3 D. Baker,2 P. Peylin,4 R. A. Houghton,5 R. A. Birdsey,6 L. Heath,6 E. T. Sundquist,7 R. F. Stallard,8 P. Ciais,9 P. Moorcroft,1 J. P. Caspersen,1 E. Shevliakova,1 B. Moore,3 G. Kohlmaier,10 E. Holland,11 M. Gloor,11 M. E. Harmon,12 S.-M. Fan,2 J. L. Sarmiento,2 C. L. Goodale,13 D. Schimel,11 C. B. Field13

For the period 1980-89, we estimate a carbon sink in the coterminous United States between 0.30 and 0.58 petagrams of carbon per year (petagrams of carbon = 1015 grams of carbon). The net carbon flux from the atmosphere to the land was higher, 0.37 to 0.71 petagrams of carbon per year, because a net flux of 0.07 to 0.13 petagrams of carbon per year was exported by rivers and commerce and returned to the atmosphere elsewhere. These land-based estimates are larger than those from previous studies (0.08 to 0.35 petagrams of carbon per year) because of the inclusion of additional processes and revised estimates of some component fluxes. Although component estimates are uncertain, about one-half of the total is outside the forest sector. We also estimated the sink using atmospheric models and the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (the tracer-transport inversion method). The range of results from the atmosphere-based inversions contains the land-based estimates. Atmosphere- and land-based estimates are thus consistent, within the large ranges of uncertainty for both methods. Atmosphere-based results for 1980-89 are similar to those for 1985-89 and 1990-94, indicating a relatively stable U.S. sink throughout the period.

1 Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology,
2 Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA.
3 Complex Systems Research Center, Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans and Space, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH 03824, USA.
4 Laboratoire de Biogeochimie Isotopique, UPMC-CNRS-INRA, Jussieu, Paris, France.
5 Woods Hole Research Center, Post Office Box 296, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA.
6 U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Newtown Square, PA 19073, USA.
7 U.S. Geological Survey, Quissett Campus, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA.
8 Water Resources Division, U.S. Geological Survey, Boulder, CO 80303-1066, USA.
9 LSCE-CEA de Saclay, Orme des Merisiers, 91191 Gif/Yvette, France.
10 Zentrum für Umweltforshung, Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universität, 60325 Frankfurt, Germany.
11 Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie, Carl Zeiss Promenada 10 07745 Jena, Germany.
12 Department of Forest Science, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA.
13 Department of Plant Biology, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Stanford, CA 94305-1297, USA.
*   To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: Pacala{at}princeton.edu

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