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Science 2 October 1992:
Vol. 258. no. 5079, pp. 115 - 117
DOI: 10.1126/science.258.5079.115
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Articles

Sensitivity of Glaciers and Small Ice Caps to Greenhouse Warming

J. Oerlemans 1 and J. P. F. Fortuin 1

1 Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht, The Netherlands

Recent field programs on glaciers have supplied information that makes simulation of glacier mass balance with meteorological models meaningful. An estimate of world-wide glacier sensitivity based on a modeling study of 12 selected glaciers situated in widely differing climatic regimes shows that for a uniform 1 K warming the area-weighted glacier mass balance will decrease by 0.40 meter per year. This corresponds to a sea-level rise of 0.58 millimeter per year, a value significantly less than earlier estimates.

Submitted on May 26, 1992
Accepted on July 28, 1992


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