Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas in the Arctic
Donald L. Gautier,1,*
Kenneth J. Bird,1
Ronald R. Charpentier,2
Arthur Grantz,3
David W. Houseknecht,4
Timothy R. Klett,2
Thomas E. Moore,1
Janet K. Pitman,2
Christopher J. Schenk,2
John H. Schuenemeyer,5
Kai Sørensen,6
Marilyn E. Tennyson,2
Zenon C. Valin,1
Craig J. Wandrey2
Among the greatest uncertainties in future energy supply and
a subject of considerable environmental concern is the amount
of oil and gas yet to be found in the Arctic. By using a probabilistic
geology-based methodology, the United States Geological Survey
has assessed the area north of the Arctic Circle and concluded
that about 30% of the world’s undiscovered gas and 13%
of the world’s undiscovered oil may be found there, mostly
offshore under less than 500 meters of water. Undiscovered natural
gas is three times more abundant than oil in the Arctic and
is largely concentrated in Russia. Oil resources, although important
to the interests of Arctic countries, are probably not sufficient
to substantially shift the current geographic pattern of world
oil production.
2 U.S. Geological Survey, Box 25046 Federal Center, Denver, CO 80225, USA.
3 930 Van Auken Circle, Palo Alto, CA 94303, USA.
4 U.S. Geological Survey, 12201 Sunrise Valley Drive, Reston, VA 20192, USA.
5 Southwest Statistical Consulting, 960 Sligo Street, Cortez, CO 81321, USA.
6 Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Øster Voldgade 10, DK-1350 Copenhagen K Denmark.
* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: gautier{at}usgs.gov
