Note to users. If you're seeing this message, it means that your browser cannot find this page's style/presentation instructions -- or possibly that you are using a browser that does not support current Web standards. Find out more about why this message is appearing, and what you can do to make your experience of our site the best it can be.

Originally published in Science Express on 7 August 2008
Science 12 September 2008:
Vol. 321. no. 5895, pp. 1481 - 1484
DOI: 10.1126/science.1160787
Prev | Table of Contents | Next

Reports

Atmospheric Warming and the Amplification of Precipitation Extremes

Richard P. Allan1* and Brian J. Soden2

Climate models suggest that extreme precipitation events will become more common in an anthropogenically warmed climate. However, observational limitations have hindered a direct evaluation of model-projected changes in extreme precipitation. We used satellite observations and model simulations to examine the response of tropical precipitation events to naturally driven changes in surface temperature and atmospheric moisture content. These observations reveal a distinct link between rainfall extremes and temperature, with heavy rain events increasing during warm periods and decreasing during cold periods. Furthermore, the observed amplification of rainfall extremes is found to be larger than that predicted by models, implying that projections of future changes in rainfall extremes in response to anthropogenic global warming may be underestimated.

1 Environmental Systems Science Centre, University of Reading, Berkshire RG6 6AL, UK.
2 Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Miami, FL 33149, USA.

* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: r.p.allan{at}reading.ac.uk

Read the Full Text


THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN CITED BY OTHER ARTICLES:
The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change.
P. A. O'Gorman and T. Schneider (2009)
PNAS 106, 14773-14777
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Risks of Climate Engineering.
G. C. Hegerl and S. Solomon (2009)
Science 325, 955-956
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »


To Advertise     Find Products

Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)