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Science 22 February 2008:
Vol. 319. no. 5866, pp. 1076 - 1079
DOI: 10.1126/science.1148783
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Reports

Extending Earthquakes' Reach Through Cascading

David Marsan* and Olivier Lengliné

Earthquakes, whatever their size, can trigger other earthquakes. Mainshocks cause aftershocks to occur, which in turn activate their own local aftershock sequences, resulting in a cascade of triggering that extends the reach of the initial mainshock. A long-lasting difficulty is to determine which earthquakes are connected, either directly or indirectly. Here we show that this causal structure can be found probabilistically, with no a priori model nor parameterization. Large regional earthquakes are found to have a short direct influence in comparison to the overall aftershock sequence duration. Relative to these large mainshocks, small earthquakes collectively have a greater effect on triggering. Hence, cascade triggering is a key component in earthquake interactions.

Laboratoire de Géophysique Interne et Tectonophysique, CNRS, Université de Savoie, 73376 Le Bourget du Lac, France.

* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: david.marsan{at}univ-savoie.fr

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THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN CITED BY OTHER ARTICLES:
Foreshock Rates from Aftershock Abundance.
A. Christophersen and E. G. C. Smith (2008)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 98, 2133-2148
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Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)