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Science 8 February 2008:
Vol. 319. no. 5864, pp. 761 - 764
DOI: 10.1126/science.1153012
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Perspective

The Urban Transformation of the Developing World

Mark R. Montgomery

Sometime in the next 20 to 30 years, developing countries in Asia and Africa are likely to cross a historic threshold, joining Latin America in having a majority of urban residents. The urban demographic transformation is described here, with an emphasis on estimates and forecasts of urban population aggregates. To provide policy-makers with useful scientific guidance in the upcoming urban era, demographic researchers will need to refine their data sets to include spatial factors as well as urban vital rates and to make improvements to forecasting methods currently in use.

Department of Economics, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY 11794, USA. Poverty, Gender, and Youth Program, Population Council, New York, NY 10017, USA. E-mail: mmontgomery{at}notes.cc.sunysb.edu

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Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)