Note to users. If you're seeing this message, it means that your browser cannot find this page's style/presentation instructions -- or possibly that you are using a browser that does not support current Web standards. Find out more about why this message is appearing, and what you can do to make your experience of our site the best it can be.

Science 8 February 2008:
Vol. 319. no. 5864, pp. 761 - 764
DOI: 10.1126/science.1153012
Prev | Table of Contents | Next

Perspective

The Urban Transformation of the Developing World

Mark R. Montgomery

Sometime in the next 20 to 30 years, developing countries in Asia and Africa are likely to cross a historic threshold, joining Latin America in having a majority of urban residents. The urban demographic transformation is described here, with an emphasis on estimates and forecasts of urban population aggregates. To provide policy-makers with useful scientific guidance in the upcoming urban era, demographic researchers will need to refine their data sets to include spatial factors as well as urban vital rates and to make improvements to forecasting methods currently in use.

Department of Economics, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY 11794, USA. Poverty, Gender, and Youth Program, Population Council, New York, NY 10017, USA. E-mail: mmontgomery{at}notes.cc.sunysb.edu

Read the Full Text

To Advertise     Find Products

Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)