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Science 14 December 2007:
Vol. 318. no. 5857, pp. 1737 - 1742
DOI: 10.1126/science.1152509
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Review

Coral Reefs Under Rapid Climate Change and Ocean Acidification

O. Hoegh-Guldberg,1* P. J. Mumby,2 A. J. Hooten,3 R. S. Steneck,4 P. Greenfield,5 E. Gomez,6 C. D. Harvell,7 P. F. Sale,8 A. J. Edwards,9 K. Caldeira,10 N. Knowlton,11 C. M. Eakin,12 R. Iglesias-Prieto,13 N. Muthiga,14 R. H. Bradbury,15 A. Dubi,16 M. E. Hatziolos17

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is expected to exceed 500 parts per million and global temperatures to rise by at least 2°C by 2050 to 2100, values that significantly exceed those of at least the past 420,000 years during which most extant marine organisms evolved. Under conditions expected in the 21st century, global warming and ocean acidification will compromise carbonate accretion, with corals becoming increasingly rare on reef systems. The result will be less diverse reef communities and carbonate reef structures that fail to be maintained. Climate change also exacerbates local stresses from declining water quality and overexploitation of key species, driving reefs increasingly toward the tipping point for functional collapse. This review presents future scenarios for coral reefs that predict increasingly serious consequences for reef-associated fisheries, tourism, coastal protection, and people. As the International Year of the Reef 2008 begins, scaled-up management intervention and decisive action on global emissions are required if the loss of coral-dominated ecosystems is to be avoided.

1 Centre for Marine Studies, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, 4072 Queensland, Australia.
2 Marine Spatial Ecology Laboratory, School of BioSciences, University of Exeter, Prince of Wales Road, Exeter EX4 4PS, UK.
3 AJH Environmental Services, 4900 Auburn Avenue, Suite 201, Bethesda, MD 20814, USA.
4 University of Maine, School of Marine Sciences, Darling Marine Center, Walpole, ME 04573, USA.
5 The Chancellery, University of Queensland, St. Lucia, 4072 Queensland, Australia.
6 Marine Science Institute, University of the Philippines, Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines.
7 Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, E321 Corson Hall, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA.
8 International Network on Water, Environment and Health, United Nations University, 50 Main Street East, Hamilton, Ontario L8N 1E9, Canada.
9 School of Biology, Ridley Building, University of Newcastle, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE17RU, UK.
10 Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution of Washington, 260 Panama Street, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.
11 National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution, Washington, DC 20013, USA.
12 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Coral Reef Watch, E/RA31, 1335 East West Highway, Silver Spring, MD 20910–3226, USA.
13 Unidad Académica Puerto Morelos, Instituto de Ciencias del Mar y Limnología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Apdo. Postal 1152, Cancún 77500 QR, México.
14 Wildlife Conservation Society, 2300 Southern Boulevard, Bronx, New York, NY 10460, USA.
15 Resource Management in Asia-Pacific Program, Australian National University, Canberra, 0200 Australia.
16 Institute of Marine Sciences, University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.
17 Environment Department, MC5-523, The World Bank, 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, DC20433, USA.

* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: oveh{at}uq.edu.au

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