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Originally published in Science Express on 14 December 2006
Science 19 January 2007:
Vol. 315. no. 5810, pp. 368 - 370
DOI: 10.1126/science.1135456
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Reports

A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise

Stefan Rahmstorf

A semi-empirical relation is presented that connects global sea-level rise to global mean surface temperature. It is proposed that, for time scales relevant to anthropogenic warming, the rate of sea-level rise is roughly proportional to the magnitude of warming above the temperatures of the pre–Industrial Age. This holds to good approximation for temperature and sea-level changes during the 20th century, with a proportionality constant of 3.4 millimeters/year per °C. When applied to future warming scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this relationship results in a projected sea-level rise in 2100 of 0.5 to 1.4 meters above the 1990 level.

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany.

E-mail: rahmstorf{at}ozean-klima.de

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THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN CITED BY OTHER ARTICLES:
Sea levels: resolution and uncertainty.
R. Edwards (2007)
Progress in Physical Geography 31, 621-632
   PDF »
Comment on "A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise".
S. Holgate, S. Jevrejeva, P. Woodworth, and S. Brewer (2007)
Science 317, 1866b
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Comment on "A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise".
T. Schmith, S. Johansen, and P. Thejll (2007)
Science 317, 1866c
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Response to Comments on "A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise".
S. Rahmstorf (2007)
Science 317, 1866d
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Glaciers Dominate Eustatic Sea-Level Rise in the 21st Century.
M. F. Meier, M. B. Dyurgerov, U. K. Rick, S. O'Neel, W. T. Pfeffer, R. S. Anderson, S. P. Anderson, and A. F. Glazovsky (2007)
Science 317, 1064-1067
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »


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Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)