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Originally published in Science Express on 14 December 2006
Science 19 January 2007:
Vol. 315. no. 5810, pp. 368 - 370
DOI: 10.1126/science.1135456
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A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise

Stefan Rahmstorf

A semi-empirical relation is presented that connects global sea-level rise to global mean surface temperature. It is proposed that, for time scales relevant to anthropogenic warming, the rate of sea-level rise is roughly proportional to the magnitude of warming above the temperatures of the pre–Industrial Age. This holds to good approximation for temperature and sea-level changes during the 20th century, with a proportionality constant of 3.4 millimeters/year per °C. When applied to future warming scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this relationship results in a projected sea-level rise in 2100 of 0.5 to 1.4 meters above the 1990 level.

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany.

E-mail: rahmstorf{at}ozean-klima.de

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