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Food for Thought: Lower-Than-Expected Crop Yield Stimulation with Rising CO2 Concentrations
Stephen P. Long,1,2,3*Elizabeth A. Ainsworth,4,1,3Andrew D. B. Leakey,3,1Josef Nösberger,5Donald R. Ort4,1,2,3
Model projections suggest that although increased temperatureand decreased soil moisture will act to reduce global crop yieldsby 2050, the direct fertilization effect of rising carbon dioxideconcentration ([CO2]) will offset these losses. The CO2 fertilizationfactors used in models to project future yields were derivedfrom enclosure studies conducted approximately 20 years ago.Free-air concentration enrichment (FACE) technology has nowfacilitated large-scale trials of the major grain crops at elevated[CO2] under fully open-air field conditions. In those trials,elevated [CO2] enhanced yield by 50% less than in enclosurestudies. This casts serious doubt on projections that rising[CO2] will fully offset losses due to climate change.
1 Department of Plant Biology, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, 1201 West Gregory Drive, Urbana, IL 61801, USA. 2 Department of Crop Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, 1201 West Gregory Drive, Urbana, IL 61801, USA. 3 Institute for Genomic Biology, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, 1201 West Gregory Drive, Urbana, IL 61801, USA. 4 Photosynthesis Research Unit, U.S. Department of Agriculture–Agricultural Research Service, 1201 West Gregory Drive, Urbana, IL 61801, USA. 5 Institute for Plant Sciences, ETH Zurich, 8902 Zurich, Switzerland.
* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: stevel{at}life.uiuc.edu
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LETTERS
Frank Ewert, John R. Porter, Mark D. A. Rounsevell;, Stephen P. Long, Elizabeth A. Ainsworth, Andrew D. B. Leakey, Donald R. Ort, Josef Nösberger, and David Schimel (26 January 2007) Science315 (5811), 459c.
[DOI: 10.1126/science.315.5811.459c] |Full Text »|PDF »
PERSPECTIVES
David Schimel (30 June 2006) Science312 (5782), 1889.
[DOI: 10.1126/science.1129913] |Summary »|Full Text »|PDF »
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50% less than in enclosure studies. This casts serious doubt on projections that rising [CO2] will fully offset losses due to climate change. 
