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Science 30 June 2006:
Vol. 312. no. 5782, pp. 1918 - 1921
DOI: 10.1126/science.1114722
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Research Articles

Food for Thought: Lower-Than-Expected Crop Yield Stimulation with Rising CO2 Concentrations

Stephen P. Long,1,2,3* Elizabeth A. Ainsworth,4,1,3 Andrew D. B. Leakey,3,1 Josef Nösberger,5 Donald R. Ort4,1,2,3

Model projections suggest that although increased temperature and decreased soil moisture will act to reduce global crop yields by 2050, the direct fertilization effect of rising carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) will offset these losses. The CO2 fertilization factors used in models to project future yields were derived from enclosure studies conducted approximately 20 years ago. Free-air concentration enrichment (FACE) technology has now facilitated large-scale trials of the major grain crops at elevated [CO2] under fully open-air field conditions. In those trials, elevated [CO2] enhanced yield by ~50% less than in enclosure studies. This casts serious doubt on projections that rising [CO2] will fully offset losses due to climate change.

1 Department of Plant Biology, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, 1201 West Gregory Drive, Urbana, IL 61801, USA.
2 Department of Crop Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, 1201 West Gregory Drive, Urbana, IL 61801, USA.
3 Institute for Genomic Biology, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, 1201 West Gregory Drive, Urbana, IL 61801, USA.
4 Photosynthesis Research Unit, U.S. Department of Agriculture–Agricultural Research Service, 1201 West Gregory Drive, Urbana, IL 61801, USA.
5 Institute for Plant Sciences, ETH Zurich, 8902 Zurich, Switzerland.

* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: stevel{at}life.uiuc.edu

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E-Letters:

Read all E-Letters

Does FACE Significantly Increase Grain Crop Yield?
Lewis H. Ziska, et al.
Science Online, 21 May 2007 [Full text]
Response to Ziska and Bunce
Stephen P. Long, et al.
Science Online, 21 May 2007 [Full text]

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