Experimental Study of Inequality and Unpredictability in an Artificial Cultural Market

doi:10.1126/science.1121066

Account Information

Guest Alerts | Access Rights | My Account | Sign In

Reports

Experimental Study of Inequality and Unpredictability in an Artificial Cultural Market

Matthew J. Salganik,¹^,2^* Peter Sheridan Dodds,²^* Duncan J. Watts¹^,2^,3^*

Hit songs, books, and movies are many times more successfulthan average, suggesting that "the best" alternatives are qualitativelydifferent from "the rest"; yet experts routinely fail to predictwhich products will succeed. We investigated this paradox experimentally,by creating an artificial "music market" in which 14,341 participantsdownloaded previously unknown songs either with or without knowledgeof previous participants' choices. Increasing the strength ofsocial influence increased both inequality and unpredictabilityof success. Success was also only partly determined by quality:The best songs rarely did poorly, and the worst rarely did well,but any other result was possible.

¹ Department of Sociology, 413 Fayerweather Hall, Columbia University, New York, NY, 10027, USA.
² Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy, Columbia University, 420 West 118th Street, 8th Floor, New York, NY, 10027, USA.
³ Santa Fe Institute, 1399 Hyde Park Road, Santa Fe, NM, 87501, USA.

^* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: mjs2105{at}columbia.edu (M.J.S.); pd315{at}columbia.edu (P.S.D.); djw24{at}columbia.edu (D.J.W.)

Read the Full Text

THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN CITED BY OTHER ARTICLES:

Situating Social Influence Processes: Dynamic, Multidirectional Flows of Influence Within Social Networks.: W. A. Mason, F. R. Conrey, and E. R. Smith (2007)
Personality and Social Psychology Review 11, 279-300
| Abstract » | PDF »