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Originally published in Science Express on 21 July 2005
Science 19 August 2005:
Vol. 309. no. 5738, pp. 1239 - 1241
DOI: 10.1126/science.1116030
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Reports

Multiple Causes of High Extinction Risk in Large Mammal Species

Marcel Cardillo,1,2* Georgina M. Mace,2 Kate E. Jones,4{dagger} Jon Bielby,2 Olaf R. P. Bininda-Emonds,5 Wes Sechrest,4{ddagger} C. David L. Orme,1 Andy Purvis1,3

Many large animal species have a high risk of extinction. This is usually thought to result simply from the way that species traits associated with vulnerability, such as low reproductive rates, scale with body size. In a broad-scale analysis of extinction risk in mammals, we find two additional patterns in the size selectivity of extinction risk. First, impacts of both intrinsic and environmental factors increase sharply above a threshold body mass around 3 kilograms. Second, whereas extinction risk in smaller species is driven by environmental factors, in larger species it is driven by a combination of environmental factors and intrinsic traits. Thus, the disadvantages of large size are greater than generally recognized, and future loss of large mammal biodiversity could be far more rapid than expected.

1 Division of Biology, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, Ascot SL5 7PY, UK.
2 Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park NW1 4RY, UK.
3 Natural Environmental Research Council (NERC) Centre for Population Biology, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, Ascot SL5 7PY, UK.
4 Department of Biology, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22904–4328, USA.
5 Lehrstuhl für Tierzucht, Technical University of Munich, Alte Akademie 12, 85354 Freising-Weihenstephan, Germany.

{dagger} Present address: Earth Institute, Center for Environmental Research and Conservation, Columbia University, 1200 Amsterdam Avenue, MC5556, New York, NY 10027, USA.

{ddagger} Present address: World Conservation Union (IUCN) Global Mammal Assessment, c/o Center for Applied Biodiversity, Conservation International, 1919 M Street N.W., Suite 600, Washington, DC 20036, USA.

* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: m.cardillo{at}imperial.ac.uk

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