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Science 1 April 2005:
Vol. 308. no. 5718, pp. 98 - 103
DOI: 10.1126/science.1106881
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Reports

Mortality and Greenhouse Gas Impacts of Biomass and Petroleum Energy Futures in Africa

Robert Bailis,1 Majid Ezzati,2* Daniel M. Kammen1,3*

We analyzed the mortality impacts and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions produced by household energy use in Africa. Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, household indoor air pollution will cause an estimated 9.8 million premature deaths by the year 2030. Gradual and rapid transitions to charcoal would delay 1.0 million and 2.8 million deaths, respectively; similar transitions to petroleum fuels would delay 1.3 million and 3.7 million deaths. Cumulative BAU GHG emissions will be 6.7 billion tons of carbon by 2050, which is 5.6% of Africa's total emissions. Large shifts to the use of fossil fuels would reduce GHG emissions by 1 to 10%. Charcoal-intensive future scenarios using current practices increase emissions by 140 to 190%; the increase can be reduced to 5 to 36% using currently available technologies for sustainable production or potentially reduced even more with investment in technological innovation.

1 Energy and Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720–3050, USA.
2 Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USA.
3 Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720–3050, USA.

* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: mezzati{at}hsph.harvard.edu (M.E.); kammen{at}berkeley.edu (D.M.K.)

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THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN CITED BY OTHER ARTICLES:
Biomass Fuels and Respiratory Diseases: A Review of the Evidence.
C. Torres-Duque, D. Maldonado, R. Perez-Padilla, M. Ezzati, G. Viegi, and on behalf of the Forum of International Respirator (2008)
Proceedings of the ATS 5, 577-590
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Zircon U-Pb age and o isotope evidence for neoproterozoic low-18O magmatism during supercontinental rifting in South China: Implications for the snowball earth event.
Y. F. Zheng, B. Gong, Z. F. Zhao, Y. B. Wu, and F. K. Chen (2008)
Am J Sci 308, 484-516
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Improving Child Survival Through Environmental and Nutritional Interventions: The Importance of Targeting Interventions Toward the Poor.
E. Gakidou, S. Oza, C. Vidal Fuertes, A. Y. Li, D. K. Lee, A. Sousa, M. C. Hogan, S. Vander Hoorn, and M. Ezzati (2007)
JAMA 298, 1876-1887
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »

E-Letters:

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Charcoal is used AND made by people
Baptiste Hautdidier, et al.
Science Online, 20 Oct 2005 [Full text]

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Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)