Note to users. If you're seeing this message, it means that your browser cannot find this page's style/presentation instructions -- or possibly that you are using a browser that does not support current Web standards. Find out more about why this message is appearing, and what you can do to make your experience of our site the best it can be.

Site Tools

  • AAAS
  • Subscribe
  • Feedback

Site Search

Search Advanced

Science 18 March 2005:
Vol. 307. no. 5716, pp. 1766 - 1769
DOI: 10.1126/science.1103934
Prev | Table of Contents | Next

Reports

The Climate Change Commitment

T. M. L. Wigley

Even if atmospheric composition were fixed today, global-mean temperature and sea level rise would continue due to oceanic thermal inertia. These constant-composition (CC) commitments and their uncertainties are quantified. Constant-emissions (CE) commitments are also considered. The CC warming commitment could exceed 1°C. The CE warming commitment is 2° to 6°C by the year 2400. For sea level rise, the CC commitment is 10 centimeters per century (extreme range approximately 1 to 30 centimeters per century) and the CE commitment is 25 centimeters per century (7 to 50 centimeters per century). Avoiding these changes requires, eventually, a reduction in emissions to substantially below present levels. For sea level rise, a substantial long-term commitment may be impossible to avoid.

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307, USA.

E-mail: wigley{at}cgd.ucar.edu

Read the Full Text


THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN CITED BY OTHER ARTICLES:
Geophysics and nutritional science: toward a novel, unified paradigm.
G. Eshel and P. A Martin (2009)
Am. J. Clinical Nutrition 89, 1710S-1716S
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Temperature increase of 21st century mitigation scenarios.
D. P. Van Vuuren, M. Meinshausen, G.-K. Plattner, F. Joos, K. M. Strassmann, S. J. Smith, T. M. L. Wigley, S. C. B. Raper, K. Riahi, F. de la Chesnaye, et al. (2008)
PNAS 105, 15258-15262
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
On avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system: Formidable challenges ahead.
V. Ramanathan and Y. Feng (2008)
PNAS 105, 14245-14250
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Recent changes in solar outputs and the global mean surface temperature. III. Analysis of contributions to global mean air surface temperature rise.
M. Lockwood (2008)
Proc R Soc A 464, 1387-1404
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
A rapid upward shift of a forest ecotone during 40 years of warming in the Green Mountains of Vermont.
B. Beckage, B. Osborne, D. G. Gavin, C. Pucko, T. Siccama, and T. Perkins (2008)
PNAS 105, 4197-4202
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Climate Change: The Public Health Response.
H. Frumkin, J. Hess, G. Luber, J. Malilay, and M. McGeehin (2008)
Am J Public Health 98, 435-445
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Issues in the interpretation of climate model ensembles to inform decisions.
D. A Stainforth, T. E Downing, R. Washington, A. Lopez, and M. New (2007)
Phil Trans R Soc A 365, 2163-2177
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Using modern through mid-Pleistocene climate proxy data to bound future variations in infiltration at Yucca Mountain, Nevada.
S. E. Sharpe (2007)
Geological Society of America Memoirs 199, 155-205
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Sea levels: change and variability during warm intervals.
R. Edwards (2006)
Progress in Physical Geography 30, 785-796
   PDF »
Paleoclimatic evidence for future ice-sheet instability and rapid sea-level rise..
J. T. Overpeck, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, G. H. Miller, D. R. Muhs, R. B. Alley, and J. T. Kiehl (2006)
Science 311, 1747-1750
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Contributions of past and present human generations to committed warming caused by carbon dioxide.
P. Friedlingstein and S. Solomon (2005)
PNAS 102, 10832-10836
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
How Much More Global Warming and Sea Level Rise?.
G. A. Meehl, W. M. Washington, W. D. Collins, J. M. Arblaster, A. Hu, L. E. Buja, W. G. Strand, and H. Teng (2005)
Science 307, 1769-1772
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »


To Advertise     Find Products

Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)