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Rhys E. Green,1,2*Stephen J. Cornell,1,3Jörn P. W. Scharlemann,1,2Andrew Balmford1,4
World food demand is expected to more than double by 2050. Decisionsabout how to meet this challenge will have profound effectson wild species and habitats. We show that farming is alreadythe greatest extinction threat to birds (the best known taxon),and its adverse impacts look set to increase, especially indeveloping countries. Two competing solutions have been proposed:wildlife-friendly farming (which boosts densities of wild populationson farmland but may decrease agricultural yields) and land sparing(which minimizes demand for farmland by increasing yield). Wepresent a model that identifies how to resolve the trade-offbetween these approaches. This shows that the best type of farmingfor species persistence depends on the demand for agriculturalproducts and on how the population densities of different specieson farmland change with agricultural yield. Empirical data onsuch density-yield functions are sparse, but evidence from arange of taxa in developing countries suggests that high-yieldfarming may allow more species to persist.
1 Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge, CB2 3EJ, UK. 2 Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The Lodge, Sandy, SG19 2DL, UK. 3 The Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK. 4 Percy FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology, University of Cape Town, Private Bag, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa.
* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: reg29{at}hermes.cam.ac.uk
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John Vandermeer, Ivette Perfecto;, Rhys E. Green, Stephen J. Cornell, Jörn P. W. Scharlemann, and Andrew Balmford (27 May 2005) Science308 (5726), 1257b.
[DOI: 10.1126/science.308.5726.1257b] |Full Text »|PDF »
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