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Science 14 January 2005:
Vol. 307. no. 5707, pp. 219 - 221
DOI: 10.1126/science.1103024
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Review

Testing Hypotheses: Prediction and Prejudice

Peter Lipton

Observations that fit a hypothesis may be made before or after the hypothesis is formulated. Can that difference be relevant to the amount of support that the observations provide for the hypothesis? Philosophers of science and statisticians are both divided on this question, but there is an argument that predictions ought to count more than accommodations, because of the risk of "fudging" that accommodations run and predictions avoid.

Department of History and Philosophy of Science, Free School Lane, Cambridge CB2 3RH, UK.

E-mail: Peter.Lipton{at}Kings.cam.ac.uk

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E-Letters:

Read all E-Letters

Corroboration and improbability
Daniel P. Faith
Science Online, 31 Jan 2005 [Full text]
More support for prediction
Norman A. Desbiens
Science Online, 31 Jan 2005 [Full text]

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Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)