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Science 24 September 2004:
Vol. 305. no. 5692, pp. 1955 - 1958
DOI: 10.1126/science.1101617
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Reports

Avian Extinction and Mammalian Introductions on Oceanic Islands

Tim M. Blackburn,1* Phillip Cassey,1 Richard P. Duncan,2 Karl L. Evans,3 Kevin J. Gaston3

The arrival of humans on oceanic islands has precipitated a wave of extinctions among the islands' native birds. Nevertheless, the magnitude of this extinction event varies markedly between avifaunas. We show that the probability that a bird species has been extirpated from each of 220 oceanic islands is positively correlated with the number of exotic predatory mammal species established on those islands after European colonization and that the effect of these predators is greater on island endemic species. In contrast, the proportions of currently threatened species are independent of the numbers of exotic mammalian predator species, suggesting that the principal threat to island birds has changed through time as species susceptible to exotic predators have been driven extinct.

1 School of Biosciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK.
2 Bioprotection and Ecology Division, Post Office Box 84, Lincoln University, and Landcare Research, Post Office Box 69, Lincoln, New Zealand.
3 Biodiversity and Macroecology Group, Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TN, UK.

* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: t.blackburn{at}bham.ac.uk

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THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN CITED BY OTHER ARTICLES:
Colloquium Paper: Species invasions and extinction: The future of native biodiversity on islands.
D. F. Sax and S. D. Gaines (2008)
PNAS 105, 11490-11497
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Using aliens to explore how our planet works.
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The Macroecological Contribution to Global Change Solutions.
J. T. Kerr, H. M. Kharouba, and D. J. Currie (2007)
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Comment on "Avian Extinction and Mammalian Introductions on Oceanic Islands".
R. K. Didham, R. M. Ewers, and N. J. Gemmell (2005)
Science 307, 1412a
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Response to Comment on "Avian Extinction and Mammalian Introductions on Oceanic Islands".
T. M. Blackburn, P. Cassey, R. P. Duncan, K. L. Evans, and K. J. Gaston (2005)
Science 307, 1412b
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Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)