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Avian Extinction and Mammalian Introductions on Oceanic Islands
Tim M. Blackburn,1*Phillip Cassey,1Richard P. Duncan,2Karl L. Evans,3Kevin J. Gaston3
The arrival of humans on oceanic islands has precipitated awave of extinctions among the islands' native birds. Nevertheless,the magnitude of this extinction event varies markedly betweenavifaunas. We show that the probability that a bird specieshas been extirpated from each of 220 oceanic islands is positivelycorrelated with the number of exotic predatory mammal speciesestablished on those islands after European colonization andthat the effect of these predators is greater on island endemicspecies. In contrast, the proportions of currently threatenedspecies are independent of the numbers of exotic mammalian predatorspecies, suggesting that the principal threat to island birdshas changed through time as species susceptible to exotic predatorshave been driven extinct.
1 School of Biosciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK. 2 Bioprotection and Ecology Division, Post Office Box 84, Lincoln University, and Landcare Research, Post Office Box 69, Lincoln, New Zealand. 3 Biodiversity and Macroecology Group, Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TN, UK.
* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: t.blackburn{at}bham.ac.uk
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