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Science 23 April 2004:
Vol. 304. no. 5670, pp. 571 - 575
DOI: 10.1126/science.1094147
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Reports

Probabilistic Integrated Assessment of "Dangerous" Climate Change

Michael D. Mastrandrea1* and Stephen H. Schneider2

Climate policy decisions are being made despite layers of uncertainty. Such decisions directly influence the potential for "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system." We mapped a metric for this concept, based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment of climate impacts, onto probability distributions of future climate change produced from uncertainty in key parameters of the coupled social-natural system—climate sensitivity, climate damages, and discount rate. Analyses with a simple integrated assessment model found that, under midrange assumptions, endogenously calculated, optimal climate policy controls can reduce the probability of dangerous anthropogenic interference from ~45% under minimal controls to near zero.

1 Interdisciplinary Graduate Program in Environment and Resources, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.
2 Department of Biological Sciences and Center for Environmental Science and Policy, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.

* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: mikemas{at}stanford.edu

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