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Science 5 March 2004:
Vol. 303. no. 5663, pp. 1499 - 1503
DOI: 10.1126/science.1093877
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Reports

European Seasonal and Annual Temperature Variability, Trends, and Extremes Since 1500

Jürg Luterbacher,1,2* Daniel Dietrich,3 Elena Xoplaki,2 Martin Grosjean,1 Heinz Wanner1,2

Multiproxy reconstructions of monthly and seasonal surface temperature fields for Europe back to 1500 show that the late 20th- and early 21st-century European climate is very likely (>95% confidence level) warmer than that of any time during the past 500 years. This agrees with findings for the entire Northern Hemisphere. European winter average temperatures during the period 1500 to 1900 were reduced by ~0.5°C (0.25°C for annual mean temperatures) compared to the 20th century. Summer temperatures did not experience systematic century-scale cooling relative to present conditions. The coldest European winter was 1708/1709; 2003 was by far the hottest summer.

1 National Center of Competence in Research (NCCR) Climate, University of Bern, CH–3012 Bern, Switzerland.
2 Institute of Geography, Climatology, and Meteorology, University of Bern, CH–3012 Bern, Switzerland.
3 Department of Mathematical Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Bern, CH–3012 Bern, Switzerland.

* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: juerg{at}giub.unibe.ch

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