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Science 16 January 2004:
Vol. 303. no. 5656, pp. 327 - 332
DOI: 10.1126/science.1090727
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Review

Unifying the Epidemiological and Evolutionary Dynamics of Pathogens

Bryan T. Grenfell,1* Oliver G. Pybus,2 Julia R. Gog,1 James L. N. Wood,3 Janet M. Daly,3 Jenny A. Mumford,3 Edward C. Holmes2

A key priority for infectious disease research is to clarify how pathogen genetic variation, modulated by host immunity, transmission bottlenecks, and epidemic dynamics, determines the wide variety of pathogen phylogenies observed at scales that range from individual host to population. We call the melding of immunodynamics, epidemiology, and evolutionary biology required to achieve this synthesis pathogen "phylodynamics." We introduce a phylodynamic framework for the dissection of dynamic forces that determine the diversity of epidemiological and phylogenetic patterns observed in RNA viruses of vertebrates. A central pillar of this model is the Evolutionary Infectivity Profile, which captures the relationship between immune selection and pathogen transmission.

1 Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge, CB2 3EJ, UK.
2 Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3PS, UK.
3 Animal Health Trust, Lanwades Park, Kentford, Newmarket, Suffolk, CB8 7UU, UK.

* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: btg11{at}cam.ac.uk

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