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Science 28 March 2003:
Vol. 299. no. 5615, pp. 2005 - 2010
DOI: 10.1126/science.1081056
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Review

Abrupt Climate Change

R. B. Alley,1 J. Marotzke,2 W. D. Nordhaus,3 J. T. Overpeck,4 D. M. Peteet,5 R. A. Pielke Jr.,6 R. T. Pierrehumbert,7 P. B. Rhines,89 T. F. Stocker,10 L. D. Talley,11 J. M. Wallace8

Large, abrupt, and widespread climate changes with major impacts have occurred repeatedly in the past, when the Earth system was forced across thresholds. Although abrupt climate changes can occur for many reasons, it is conceivable that human forcing of climate change is increasing the probability of large, abrupt events. Were such an event to recur, the economic and ecological impacts could be large and potentially serious. Unpredictability exhibited near climate thresholds in simple models shows that some uncertainty will always be associated with projections. In light of these uncertainties, policy-makers should consider expanding research into abrupt climate change, improving monitoring systems, and taking actions designed to enhance the adaptability and resilience of ecosystems and economies.

1 Department of Geosciences and EMS Environment Institute, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA.
2 Southampton Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton SO14 3ZH, UK.
3 Department of Economics, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06520, USA.
4 Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA.
5 Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA, and NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, USA.
6 Center for Science and Technology Policy Research, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA.
7 Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637, USA.
8 Department of Atmospheric Sciences and
9 Department of Oceanography, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.
10 Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland.
11 The Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California-San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA.

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