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Ecological Predictions and Risk Assessment for Alien Fishes in North America
Cynthia S. Kolar,*David M. Lodge
Methods of risk assessment for alien species, especially for
nonagricultural systems, are largely qualitative. Using a generalizablerisk assessment approach and statistical models of fish introductionsinto the Great Lakes, North America, we developed a quantitativeapproach to target prevention efforts on species most likely tocause
damage. Models correctly categorized established, quicklyspreading,
and nuisance fishes with 87 to 94% accuracy. We thenidentified
fishes that pose a high risk to the Great Lakes ifintroduced from
unintentional (ballast water) or intentional pathways(sport, pet,
bait, and aquaculture industries).
Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre
Dame, IN 46556, USA.
*
Present address: U.S. Geological Survey Upper Midwest
Environmental Sciences Center, 2630 Fanta Reed Road, LaCrosse, WI
54603,USA.
To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail:
ckolar{at}usgs.gov
Traits of invasives reconsidered: phenotypic comparisons of introduced invasive and introduced noninvasive plant species within two closely related clades.
