Note to users. If you're seeing this message, it means that your browser cannot find this page's style/presentation instructions -- or possibly that you are using a browser that does not support current Web standards. Find out more about why this message is appearing, and what you can do to make your experience of our site the best it can be.

Science 1 November 2002:
Vol. 298. no. 5595, pp. 981 - 987
DOI: 10.1126/science.1072357
Prev | Table of Contents | Next

Review

ENGINEERING:
Advanced Technology Paths to Global Climate Stability: Energy for a Greenhouse Planet

Martin I. Hoffert,1* Ken Caldeira,3 Gregory Benford,4 David R. Criswell,5 Christopher Green,6 Howard Herzog,7 Atul K. Jain,8 Haroon S. Kheshgi,9 Klaus S. Lackner,10 John S. Lewis,12 H. Douglas Lightfoot,13 Wallace Manheimer,14 John C. Mankins,15 Michael E. Mauel,11 L. John Perkins,3 Michael E. Schlesinger,8 Tyler Volk,2 Tom M. L. Wigley16

Stabilizing the carbon dioxide-induced component of climate change is an energy problem. Establishment of a course toward such stabilization will require the development within the coming decades of primary energy sources that do not emit carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, in addition to efforts to reduce end-use energy demand. Mid-century primary power requirements that are free of carbon dioxide emissions could be several times what we now derive from fossil fuels (~1013 watts), even with improvements in energy efficiency. Here we survey possible future energy sources, evaluated for their capability to supply massive amounts of carbon emission-free energy and for their potential for large-scale commercialization. Possible candidates for primary energy sources include terrestrial solar and wind energy, solar power satellites, biomass, nuclear fission, nuclear fusion, fission-fusion hybrids, and fossil fuels from which carbon has been sequestered. Non-primary power technologies that could contribute to climate stabilization include efficiency improvements, hydrogen production, storage and transport, superconducting global electric grids, and geoengineering. All of these approaches currently have severe deficiencies that limit their ability to stabilize global climate. We conclude that a broad range of intensive research and development is urgently needed to produce technological options that can allow both climate stabilization and economic development.

1 Department of Physics,
2 Department of Biology, New York University, New York, NY 10003, USA.
3 Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550, USA.
4 Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA.
5 Institute of Space Systems Operations, University of Houston, Houston, TX 77204, USA.
6 Department of Economics, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec H3A 2T7, Canada.
7 MIT Laboratory for Energy and the Environment, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA.
8 Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801, USA.
9 ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company, Annandale, NJ 08801, USA.
10 Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering,
11 Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA.
12 Lunar and Planetary Laboratory, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA.
13 Centre for Climate and Global Change Research, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec H3A 2K6, Canada.
14 Plasma Physics Division, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC 20375, USA.
15 NASA Headquarters, Washington, DC 20546, USA.
16 National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307, USA.
*   To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: marty.hoffert{at}nyu.edu

Read the Full Text


THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN CITED BY OTHER ARTICLES:
Mitigation implications of midcentury targets that preserve long-term climate policy options.
B. C. O'Neill, K. Riahi, and I. Keppo (2010)
PNAS 107, 1011-1016
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Can Civilization (at Least the U.K.) Run Sustainably?.
M. Hoffert (2009)
Science 324, 1517-1518
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Implications of Limiting CO2 Concentrations for Land Use and Energy.
M. Wise, K. Calvin, A. Thomson, L. Clarke, B. Bond-Lamberty, R. Sands, S. J. Smith, A. Janetos, and J. Edmonds (2009)
Science 324, 1183-1186
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Carbon Dioxide Fixation within Mine Wastes of Ultramafic-Hosted Ore Deposits: Examples from the Clinton Creek and Cassiar Chrysotile Deposits, Canada.
S. A. Wilson, G. M. Dipple, I. M. Power, J. M. Thom, R. G. Anderson, M. Raudsepp, J. E. Gabites, and G. Southam (2009)
Economic Geology 104, 95-112
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Geoengineering: could we or should we make it work?.
S. H Schneider (2008)
Phil Trans R Soc A 366, 3843-3862
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Carbon dioxide sequestration in deep-sea basalt.
D. S. Goldberg, T. Takahashi, and A. L. Slagle (2008)
PNAS 105, 9920-9925
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Climate treaties and the imperative of enforcement.
S. Barrett (2008)
Oxf. Rev. Econ. Policy 24, 239-258
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Dissolution of diopside and basaltic glass: the effect of carbonate coating.
G. Stockmann, D. Wolff-Boenisch, S. R. Gislason, and E. H. Oelkers (2008)
Mineralogical Magazine 72, 135-139
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions.
M. R. Raupach, G. Marland, P. Ciais, C. Le Quere, J. G. Canadell, G. Klepper, and C. B. Field (2007)
PNAS 104, 10288-10293
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Biological solar energy.
J. Barber (2007)
Phil Trans R Soc A 365, 1007-1023
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Toward Cost-Effective Solar Energy Use.
N. S. Lewis (2007)
Science 315, 798-801
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Feasibility of cooling the Earth with a cloud of small spacecraft near the inner Lagrange point (L1).
R. Angel (2006)
PNAS 103, 17184-17189
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
A Combined Mitigation/Geoengineering Approach to Climate Stabilization.
T. M. L. Wigley (2006)
Science 314, 452-454
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Reducing Asymmetries in Intergenerational Justice: Descent from Modernity or Space Industrialization?.
R. Karlsson (2006)
Organization Environment 19, 233-250
   Abstract »    PDF »
The Path Forward for Biofuels and Biomaterials.
A. J. Ragauskas, C. K. Williams, B. H. Davison, G. Britovsek, J. Cairney, C. A. Eckert, W. J. Frederick Jr., J. P. Hallett, D. J. Leak, C. L. Liotta, et al. (2006)
Science 311, 484-489
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Trading Water for Carbon with Biological Carbon Sequestration.
R. B. Jackson, E. G. Jobbagy, R. Avissar, S. B. Roy, D. J. Barrett, C. W. Cook, K. A. Farley, D. C. le Maitre, B. A. McCarl, and B. C. Murray (2005)
Science 310, 1944-1947
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
What We Learned From the Oil Crisis of 1973: A 30-Year Retrospective.
J. L. Roeder (2005)
Bulletin of Science Technology Society 25, 166-169
   Abstract »    PDF »
Curbing the U.S. carbon deficit.
R. B. Jackson and W. H. Schlesinger (2004)
PNAS 101, 15827-15829
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies.
S. Pacala and R. Socolow (2004)
Science 305, 968-972
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Environmental impact of the nuclear fuel cycle.
R. C. Ewing (2004)
Geological Society, London, Special Publications 236, 7-23
   Abstract »    PDF »
The Challenge of Long-Term Climate Change.
K. Hasselmann, M. Latif, G. Hooss, C. Azar, O. Edenhofer, C. C. Jaeger, O. M. Johannessen, C. Kemfert, M. Welp, and A. Wokaun (2003)
Science 302, 1923-1925
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Modern Global Climate Change.
T. R. Karl and K. E. Trenberth (2003)
Science 302, 1719-1723
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »

E-Letters:

Read all E-Letters

Ignores conservation
William R. Stewart
Science Online, 27 Nov 2002 [Full text]
Breeder reactors should be considered also
Ira Charak
Science Online, 27 Nov 2002 [Full text]
Life-cycle Assessment of Energy Technologies
sergio a pacca
Science Online, 27 Nov 2002 [Full text]
High-Temperature Solar-Thermal, a readily available solution
Taw Benderly
Science Online, 27 Nov 2002 [Full text]
Slowing population growth
Albert A. Bartlett
Science Online, 24 Apr 2003 [Full text]
Regarding Advanced Technology Paths to Global Climate Stability: Energy for a Greenhouse Planet
Richard B. Diver
Science Online, 24 Apr 2003 [Full text]
Strategies for dealing with global warming
Ned Ford
Science Online, 24 Apr 2003 [Full text]
Re: Hoffert et al.
Gerald E. Marsh, et al.
Science Online, 24 Apr 2003 [Full text]
The competitiveness of renewable energy
Marco Verweij
Science Online, 24 Apr 2003 [Full text]

To Advertise     Find Products

Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)