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ENGINEERING:
Advanced Technology Paths to Global Climate Stability: Energy for a Greenhouse Planet
Martin I. Hoffert,1*Ken Caldeira,3Gregory Benford,4David R. Criswell,5Christopher Green,6Howard Herzog,7Atul K. Jain,8Haroon S. Kheshgi,9Klaus S. Lackner,10John S. Lewis,12H. Douglas Lightfoot,13Wallace Manheimer,14John C. Mankins,15Michael E. Mauel,11L. John Perkins,3Michael E. Schlesinger,8Tyler Volk,2Tom M. L. Wigley16
Stabilizing the carbon dioxide-induced component of climate
change is an energy problem. Establishment of a course towardsuch
stabilization will require the development within the comingdecades of
primary energy sources that do not emit carbon dioxideto the
atmosphere, in addition to efforts to reduce end-use energydemand.
Mid-century primary power requirements that are free ofcarbon dioxide
emissions could be several times what we now derivefrom fossil fuels
(~1013 watts), even with improvements in energy
efficiency. Here wesurvey possible future energy sources, evaluated
for their capabilityto supply massive amounts of carbon emission-free
energy and fortheir potential for large-scale commercialization.
Possible candidatesfor primary energy sources include terrestrial
solar and windenergy, solar power satellites, biomass, nuclear
fission, nuclearfusion, fission-fusion hybrids, and fossil fuels from
which carbonhas been sequestered. Non-primary power technologies that
couldcontribute to climate stabilization include efficiency
improvements,hydrogen production, storage and transport,
superconducting globalelectric grids, and geoengineering. All of these
approaches currentlyhave severe deficiencies that limit their ability
to stabilizeglobal climate. We conclude that a broad range of
intensive researchand development is urgently needed to produce
technological optionsthat can allow both climate stabilization and
economic development.
1 Department of Physics,
2 Department of Biology, New York University, New
York, NY 10003, USA.
3 Lawrence Livermore National
Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550, USA.
4 Department
of Physics and Astronomy, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA.
5 Institute of Space Systems Operations,
University of Houston, Houston, TX 77204, USA.
6 Department of Economics, McGill University,
Montreal, Quebec H3A 2T7, Canada.
7 MIT Laboratory
for Energy and the Environment, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA.
8 Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of
Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801, USA.
9 ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company,
Annandale, NJ 08801, USA.
10 Department of Earth
and Environmental Engineering,
11 Department of
Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York,
NY 10027, USA.
12 Lunar and Planetary Laboratory,
University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA.
13 Centre for Climate and Global Change Research,
McGill University, Montreal, Quebec H3A 2K6, Canada.
14 Plasma Physics Division, Naval Research
Laboratory, Washington, DC 20375, USA.
15 NASA
Headquarters, Washington, DC 20546, USA.
16 National Center for Atmospheric Research,
Boulder, CO 80307, USA.
*
To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail:
marty.hoffert{at}nyu.edu
The editors suggest the following Related Resources on Science sites:
In Science Magazine
LETTERS
Brian O'Neill, Arnulf Grübler, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Michael Obersteiner, Keywan Riahi, Leo Schrattenholzer, Ferenc Toth;, Richard D. Wilson, Robert Krakowski;, Rob Swart, Jose Roberto Moreira, Tsuneyuki Morita, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Hugh Pitcher, Hans-Holger Rogner;, Martin I. Hoffert, Ken Caldeira, Gregory Benford, Tyler Volk, David R. Criswell, Christopher Green, Howard Herzog, Atul K. Jain, Haroon S. Kheshgi, Klaus S. Lackner, John S. Lewis, H. Douglas Lightfoot, Wallace Manheimer, L. John Perkins, Michael E. Schlesinger, and Tom M. L. Wigley (25 April 2003) Science300 (5619), 581b.
[DOI: 10.1126/science.300.5619.581b] |Full Text »|PDF »
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