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Science 1 November 2002:
Vol. 298. no. 5595, pp. 1015 - 1017
DOI: 10.1126/science.1076814
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Reports

Climate Change and Latitudinal Patterns of Intertidal Thermal Stress

Brian Helmuth,1* Christopher D. G. Harley,23 Patricia M. Halpin,46 Michael O'Donnell,3 Gretchen E. Hofmann,56 Carol A. Blanchette6

The interaction of climate and the timing of low tides along the West Coast of the United States creates a complex mosaic of thermal environments, in which northern sites can be more thermally stressful than southern sites. Thus, climate change may not lead to a poleward shift in the distribution of intertidal organisms, as has been proposed, but instead will likely cause localized extinctions at a series of "hot spots." Patterns of exposure to extreme climatic conditions are temporally variable, and tidal predictions suggest that in the next 3 to 5 years "hot spots" are likely to appear at several northern sites.

1 University of South Carolina, Department of Biological Sciences and Marine Sciences Program, Columbia, SC 29208, USA.
2 University of Washington, Department of Zoology, Box 351800, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.
3 Stanford University, Hopkins Marine Station, Pacific Grove, CA 93950, USA.
4 Oregon State University, Department of Zoology, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA.
5 Department of Ecology, Evolution and Marine Biology.
6 Marine Science Institute, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA.
*   To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: helmuth{at}biol.sc.edu

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