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Evidence for Large Decadal Variability in the Tropical Mean Radiative Energy Budget
Bruce A. Wielicki,1*Takmeng Wong,1Richard P. Allan,2Anthony Slingo,2Jeffrey T. Kiehl,3Brian J. Soden,4C. T. Gordon,4Alvin J. Miller,5Shi-Keng Yang,5David A. Randall,6Franklin Robertson,7Joel Susskind,8Herbert Jacobowitz9
It is widely assumed that variations in Earth's radiative energy
budget at large time and space scales are small. We presentnew
evidence from a compilation of over two decades of accuratesatellite
data that the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) tropical radiativeenergy
budget is much more dynamic and variable than previouslythought.
Results indicate that the radiation budget changes arecaused by
changes in tropical mean cloudiness. The results ofseveral current
climate model simulations fail to predict thislarge observed variation
in tropical energy budget. The missingvariability in the models
highlights the critical need to improvecloud modeling in the tropics
so that prediction of tropical climateon interannual and decadal time
scales can be improved.
1 NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA
23681, USA.
2 Hadley Centre, Met Office, Bracknell,
RG12 2SY, UK.
3 National Center for Atmospheric
Research, Post Office Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80303, USA.
4 GFDL/NOAA, Princeton University, Post Office Box
308, Princeton, NJ 08542, USA.
5 NOAA Climate
Prediction Center/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD 20746, USA.
6 Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA.
7 NASA Marshall Space Flight Center,
Huntsville, AL 35812, USA.
8 NASA Goddard Space
Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA.
9 NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD 20746, USA.
*
To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail:
b.a.wielicki{at}larc.nasa.gov
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TECHNICAL COMMENTS
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[DOI: 10.1126/science.296.5576.2095a] |Full Text »|PDF »
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