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Science 4 January 2002:
Vol. 295. no. 5552, pp. 113 - 117
DOI: 10.1126/science.1064419
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Reports

Quantifying Uncertainties in Climate System Properties with the Use of Recent Climate Observations

Chris E. Forest,1* Peter H. Stone,1 Andrei P. Sokolov,1 Myles R. Allen,2 Mort D. Webster1dagger

We derive joint probability density distributions for three key uncertain properties of the climate system, using an optimal fingerprinting approach to compare simulations of an intermediate complexity climate model with three distinct diagnostics of recent climate observations. On the basis of the marginal probability distributions, the 5 to 95% confidence intervals are 1.4 to 7.7 kelvin for climate sensitivity and -0.30 to -0.95 watt per square meter for the net aerosol forcing. The oceanic heat uptake is not well constrained, but ocean temperature observations do help to constrain climate sensitivity. The uncertainty in the net aerosol forcing is much smaller than the uncertainty range for the indirect aerosol forcing alone given in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report.

1 Joint Program on the Science Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA.
2 Department of Physics, Oxford University, Oxford, OX1 3PU UK.
*   To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: ceforest{at}mit.edu

dagger    Present address: Department of Public Policy, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA.

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