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Science 16 November 2001:
Vol. 294. no. 5546, pp. 1522 - 1524
DOI: 10.1126/science.1065005

Reports

Nonequilibrium Diversity Dynamics of the Lesser Antillean Avifauna

Robert E. Ricklefs,1* Eldredge Bermingham123

MacArthur and Wilson's model of island diversity predicts an increase in the number of species until colonization and extinction are balanced at a long-term steady state. We appraise this model on an evolutionary time scale by molecular phylogenetic analysis of the colonization of the Lesser Antilles by small land birds. The pattern of accumulation of species with time, estimated by genetic divergence between island and source lineages, rejects a homogeneous model of colonization and extinction. Rather, our results suggest an abrupt, roughly 10-fold increase in colonization rate or a 90% mass extinction event 0.55 to 0.75 million years ago.

1 Department of Biology, University of Missouri-St. Louis, St. Louis, MO 63121, USA.
2 Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Box 2072, Balboa, Republic of Panama.
3 Department of Biology, McGill University, 1205 Docteur Penfield Avenue, Montreal, Quebec H3A 1B1, Canada.
*   To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: ricklefs{at}umsl.edu


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Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)