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Science 19 October 2001:
Vol. 294. no. 5542, pp. 581 - 584
DOI: 10.1126/science.1063315
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Reports

Stratospheric Harbingers of Anomalous Weather Regimes

Mark P. Baldwin,* Timothy J. Dunkerton

Observations show that large variations in the strength of the stratospheric circulation, appearing first above ~50 kilometers, descend to the lowermost stratosphere and are followed by anomalous tropospheric weather regimes. During the 60 days after the onset of these events, average surface pressure maps resemble closely the Arctic Oscillation pattern. These stratospheric events also precede shifts in the probability distributions of extreme values of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, the location of storm tracks, and the local likelihood of mid-latitude storms. Our observations suggest that these stratospheric harbingers may be used as a predictor of tropospheric weather regimes.

Northwest Research Associates, 14508 Northeast 20th Street, Bellevue, WA 98007-3713, USA.
*   To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: mark{at}nwra.com

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THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN CITED BY OTHER ARTICLES:
Simulation of Recent Southern Hemisphere Climate Change.
N. P. Gillett and D. W. J. Thompson (2003)
Science 302, 273-275
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Stratospheric Memory and Skill of Extended-Range Weather Forecasts.
M. P. Baldwin, D. B. Stephenson, D. W. J. Thompson,, T. J. Dunkerton, A. J. Charlton, and A. O'Neill (2003)
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Interpretation of Recent Southern Hemisphere Climate Change.
D. W. J. Thompson and S. Solomon (2002)
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Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)