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The Recent Increase in Atlantic Hurricane Activity: Causes and Implications
Stanley B. Goldenberg,1*Christopher W. Landsea,1Alberto M. Mestas-Nuñez,2William
M. Gray3
The years 1995 to 2000 experienced the highest level of North
Atlantic hurricane activity in the reliable record. Comparedwith the
generally low activity of the previous 24 years (1971to 1994), the
past 6 years have seen a doubling of overall activityfor the whole
basin, a 2.5-fold increase in major hurricanes (50meters per
second), and a fivefold increase in hurricanes affectingthe Caribbean.
The greater activity results from simultaneousincreases in North
Atlantic sea-surface temperatures and decreasesin vertical wind shear.
Because these changes exhibit a multidecadaltime scale, the present
high level of hurricane activity is likelyto persist for an additional
~10 to 40 years. The shift in climatecalls for a reevaluation of
preparedness and mitigation strategies.
1 National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological
Laboratory/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, FL 33149, USA.
2 Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric
Studies/University of Miami, Miami, FL 33149, USA.
3 Colorado State University, Department of
Atmospheric Sciences, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA.
*
To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail:
Stanley.Goldenberg{at}noaa.gov
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50 meters per
second), and a fivefold increase in hurricanes affecting the Caribbean.
The greater activity results from simultaneous increases in North
Atlantic sea-surface temperatures and decreases in vertical wind shear.
Because these changes exhibit a multidecadal time scale, the present
high level of hurricane activity is likely to persist for an additional
~10 to 40 years. The shift in climate calls for a reevaluation of
preparedness and mitigation strategies.
