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Interpretation of High Projections for Global-Mean Warming
T. M. L. Wigley,1*S. C. B. Raper2
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has recently
released its Third Assessment Report (TAR), in which newprojections are given for global-mean warming in the absence ofpolicies to limit climate change. The full warming range over1990 to
2100, 1.4° to 5.8°C, is substantially higher than therange given
previously in the IPCC Second Assessment Report. Herewe interpret the
new warming range in probabilistic terms, accountingfor uncertainties
in emissions, the climate sensitivity, the carboncycle, ocean mixing,
and aerosol forcing. We show that the probabilitiesof warming values
at both the high and low ends of the TAR rangeare very low. In the
absence of climate-mitigation policies, the90% probability interval
for 1990 to 2100 warming is 1.7° to 4.9°C.
1 National Center for Atmospheric Research,
Boulder, CO 80307, USA.
2 Climatic Research Unit,
University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK and
Alfred-Wegener-Institut for Polar and Marine Research, D-27515
Bremerhaven, Germany.
*
To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail:
wigley{at}ucar.edu
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