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Consistent Land- and Atmosphere-Based U.S. Carbon Sink Estimates
S. W. Pacala,1*G. C. Hurtt,3D. Baker,2P. Peylin,4R. A. Houghton,5R. A. Birdsey,6L. Heath,6E. T. Sundquist,7R. F. Stallard,8P. Ciais,9P. Moorcroft,1J. P. Caspersen,1E. Shevliakova,1B. Moore,3G. Kohlmaier,10E. Holland,11M. Gloor,11M. E. Harmon,12S.-M. Fan,2J. L. Sarmiento,2C. L. Goodale,13D. Schimel,11C. B. Field13
For the period 1980-89, we estimate a carbon sink in
the coterminous United States between 0.30 and 0.58 petagrams of carbonper year (petagrams of carbon = 1015 grams of
carbon). The net carbon flux from the atmosphere tothe land was
higher, 0.37 to 0.71 petagrams of carbon per year,because a net flux
of 0.07 to 0.13 petagrams of carbon per yearwas exported by rivers and
commerce and returned to the atmosphereelsewhere. These land-based
estimates are larger than those fromprevious studies (0.08 to 0.35 petagrams of carbon per year) becauseof the inclusion of additional
processes and revised estimatesof some component fluxes. Although
component estimates are uncertain,about one-half of the total is
outside the forest sector. We alsoestimated the sink using atmospheric
models and the atmosphericconcentration of carbon dioxide (the
tracer-transport inversionmethod). The range of results from the
atmosphere-based inversionscontains the land-based estimates.
Atmosphere- and land-basedestimates are thus consistent, within the
large ranges of uncertaintyfor both methods. Atmosphere-based results
for 1980-89 are similarto those for 1985-89 and 1990-94, indicating
a relatively stableU.S. sink throughout the period.
1 Department of Ecology and Evolutionary
Biology,
2 Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program,
Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA.
3 Complex Systems Research Center, Institute for the
Study of Earth, Oceans and Space, University of New Hampshire, Durham,
NH 03824, USA.
4 Laboratoire de Biogeochimie
Isotopique, UPMC-CNRS-INRA, Jussieu, Paris, France.
5 Woods Hole Research Center, Post Office Box 296, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA.
6 U.S. Department of
Agriculture Forest Service, Newtown Square, PA 19073, USA.
7 U.S. Geological Survey, Quissett Campus, Woods
Hole, MA 02543, USA.
8 Water Resources Division,
U.S. Geological Survey, Boulder, CO 80303-1066, USA.
9 LSCE-CEA de Saclay, Orme des Merisiers, 91191 Gif/Yvette, France.
10 Zentrum für
Umweltforshung, Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universität, 60325 Frankfurt, Germany.
11 Max-Planck-Institut
für Biogeochemie, Carl Zeiss Promenada 10 07745 Jena, Germany.
12 Department of Forest Science, Oregon State
University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA.
13 Department
of Plant Biology, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Stanford, CA
94305-1297, USA.
*
To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail:
Pacala{at}princeton.edu
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