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Age, Sex, Density, Winter Weather, and Population Crashes in Soay Sheep
T. Coulson,1*E. A. Catchpole,2S. D. Albon,3B. J. T. Morgan,4J. M. Pemberton,5T. H. Clutton-Brock,6M. J. Crawley,6B. T. Grenfell7
Quantifying the impact of density, extrinsic climatic
fluctuations, and demography on population fluctuations is a persistentchallenge in ecology. We analyzed the effect of these processeson the
irregular pattern of population crashes of Soay sheep onthe St. Kilda
archipelago, United Kingdom. Because the age andsex structure of the
population fluctuates independently of populationsize, and because
animals of different age and sex respond indifferent ways to density
and weather, identical weather conditionscan result in different
dynamics in populations of equal size.In addition, the strength of
density-dependent processes is afunction of the distribution of
weather events. Incorporatingdemographic heterogeneities into
population models can influencedynamics and their response to climate
change.
1 Institute of Zoology, Zoological
Society of London, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, UK.
2 School of Mathematics and Statistics, University
College University of New South Wales, Australian Defence Force
Academy, Canberra, ACT 2600, Australia.
3 Center for
Ecology and Hydrology, Hill of Brathens, Glassel, Banchory AB31 4BY,
UK.
4 Institute of Mathematics and Statistics,
University of Kent at Canterbury, Canterbury, Kent CT2 7NF, UK.
5 Institute of Cell, Animal and Population Biology,
West Mains Road, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3JT, Scotland,
UK.
6 Imperial College at Silwood Park, Ascot, Berks
SL5 7PY, UK.
7 Department of Zoology, University of
Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK.
*
Present address: Department of Zoology,
University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK.
To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail:
tnc20{at}cam.ac.uk
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[DOI: 10.1126/science.1061765] |Summary »|Full Text »
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