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Science 25 May 2001:
Vol. 292. no. 5521, pp. 1528 - 1531
DOI: 10.1126/science.292.5521.1528
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Reports

Age, Sex, Density, Winter Weather, and Population Crashes in Soay Sheep

T. Coulson,1*dagger E. A. Catchpole,2 S. D. Albon,3 B. J. T. Morgan,4 J. M. Pemberton,5 T. H. Clutton-Brock,6 M. J. Crawley,6 B. T. Grenfell7

Quantifying the impact of density, extrinsic climatic fluctuations, and demography on population fluctuations is a persistent challenge in ecology. We analyzed the effect of these processes on the irregular pattern of population crashes of Soay sheep on the St. Kilda archipelago, United Kingdom. Because the age and sex structure of the population fluctuates independently of population size, and because animals of different age and sex respond in different ways to density and weather, identical weather conditions can result in different dynamics in populations of equal size. In addition, the strength of density-dependent processes is a function of the distribution of weather events. Incorporating demographic heterogeneities into population models can influence dynamics and their response to climate change.

1 Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, UK.
2 School of Mathematics and Statistics, University College University of New South Wales, Australian Defence Force Academy, Canberra, ACT 2600, Australia.
3 Center for Ecology and Hydrology, Hill of Brathens, Glassel, Banchory AB31 4BY, UK.
4 Institute of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Kent at Canterbury, Canterbury, Kent CT2 7NF, UK.
5 Institute of Cell, Animal and Population Biology, West Mains Road, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3JT, Scotland, UK.
6 Imperial College at Silwood Park, Ascot, Berks SL5 7PY, UK.
7 Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK.
*   Present address: Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK.

dagger    To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: tnc20{at}cam.ac.uk

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