Note to users. If you're seeing this message, it means that your browser cannot find this page's style/presentation instructions -- or possibly that you are using a browser that does not support current Web standards. Find out more about why this message is appearing, and what you can do to make your experience of our site the best it can be.

Science 22 September 2000:
Vol. 289. no. 5487, pp. 2068 - 2074
DOI: 10.1126/science.289.5487.2068
Prev | Table of Contents | Next

Review

Climate Extremes: Observations, Modeling, and Impacts

David R. Easterling,1* Gerald A. Meehl,2 Camille Parmesan,3 Stanley A. Changnon,4 Thomas R. Karl,1 Linda O. Mearns2

One of the major concerns with a potential change in climate is that an increase in extreme events will occur. Results of observational studies suggest that in many areas that have been analyzed, changes in total precipitation are amplified at the tails, and changes in some temperature extremes have been observed. Model output has been analyzed that shows changes in extreme events for future climates, such as increases in extreme high temperatures, decreases in extreme low temperatures, and increases in intense precipitation events. In addition, the societal infrastructure is becoming more sensitive to weather and climate extremes, which would be exacerbated by climate change. In wild plants and animals, climate-induced extinctions, distributional and phenological changes, and species' range shifts are being documented at an increasing rate. Several apparently gradual biological changes are linked to responses to extreme weather and climate events.

1 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/National Climatic Data Center, 151 Patton Avenue, Asheville, NC 28801, USA.
2 National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80303, USA.
3 Integrative Biology, University of Texas, Austin, TX 78712, USA.
4 Illinois State Water Survey, Champaign, IL 61820, USA.
*   To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: david.r.easterling{at}noaa.gov

Read the Full Text


THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN CITED BY OTHER ARTICLES:
Effects of environmental change on wildlife health.
K. Acevedo-Whitehouse and A. L. J. Duffus (2009)
Phil Trans R Soc B 364, 3429-3438
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Geographically distinct reproductive schedules in a changing world: Costly implications in captive Stonechats.
B. Helm (2009)
Integr. Comp. Biol. 49, 563-579
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Altered leaf morphology, leaf resource dilution and defense chemistry induction in frost-defoliated aspen (Populus tremuloides).
S. B. St. Clair, S. D. Monson, E. A. Smith, D. G. Cahill, and W. J. Calder (2009)
Tree Physiol 29, 1259-1268
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Large population sizes mitigate negative effects of variable weather conditions on fruit set in two spring woodland orchids.
H. Jacquemyn, R. Brys, and O. Honnay (2009)
Biol Lett 5, 495-498
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Translocation experiments with butterflies reveal limits to enhancement of poleward populations under climate change.
S. L. Pelini, J. D. K. Dzurisin, K. M. Prior, C. M. Williams, T. D. Marsico, B. J. Sinclair, and J. J. Hellmann (2009)
PNAS 106, 11160-11165
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Spatial and seasonal patterns in climate change, temperatures, and precipitation across the United States.
R. W. Portmann, S. Solomon, and G. C. Hegerl (2009)
PNAS 106, 7324-7329
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Wood formation in Abies balsamea seedlings subjected to artificial defoliation.
S. Rossi, S. Simard, A. Deslauriers, and H. Morin (2009)
Tree Physiol 29, 551-558
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
From the Cover: The potential for behavioral thermoregulation to buffer "cold-blooded" animals against climate warming.
M. Kearney, R. Shine, and W. P. Porter (2009)
PNAS 106, 3835-3840
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Why Climate Change Makes Riparian Restoration More Important than Ever: Recommendations for Practice and Research.
N. E. Seavy, T. Gardali, G. H. Golet, F. T. Griggs, C. A. Howell, R. Kelsey, S. L. Small, J. H. Viers, and J. F. Weigand (2009)
Ecological Rest. 27, 330-338
   Abstract »    PDF »
Severe drought and calf survival in elephants.
C. Foley, N. Pettorelli, and L. Foley (2008)
Biol Lett 4, 541-544
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Macrophysiology for a changing world.
S. L Chown and K. J Gaston (2008)
Proc R Soc B 275, 1469-1478
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Winds of Change: A Century of Agroclimate Research.
J. L. Steiner and J. L. Hatfield (2008)
Agron. J. 100, S-132-S-152
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Impact of an extreme climatic event on community assembly.
K. M. Thibault and J. H. Brown (2008)
PNAS 105, 3410-3415
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Climate change and the effects of temperature extremes on Australian flying-foxes.
J. A Welbergen, S. M Klose, N. Markus, and P. Eby (2008)
Proc R Soc B 275, 419-425
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Costs and benefits of cold acclimation in field-released Drosophila.
T. N. Kristensen, A. A. Hoffmann, J. Overgaard, J. G. Sorensen, R. Hallas, and V. Loeschcke (2008)
PNAS 105, 216-221
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Phenotypic plasticity mediates climate change responses among invasive and indigenous arthropods.
S. L Chown, S. Slabber, M. A McGeoch, C. Janion, and H. P. Leinaas (2007)
Proc R Soc B 274, 2531-2537
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Soil Respiration in a Subtropical Savanna Parkland: Response to Water Additions.
R. L. McCulley, T. W. Boutton, and S. R. Archer (2007)
Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J. 71, 820-828
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Aspects of climate change prediction relevant to crop productivity.
C. Huntingford, F Hugo Lambert, J. H.C Gash, C. M Taylor, and A. J Challinor (2005)
Phil Trans R Soc B 360, 1999-2009
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Crop responses to climatic variation.
J. R Porter and M. A Semenov (2005)
Phil Trans R Soc B 360, 2021-2035
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Climatic unpredictability and parasitism of caterpillars: Implications of global warming.
J. O. Stireman III, L. A. Dyer, D. H. Janzen, M. S. Singer, J. T. Lill, R. J. Marquis, R. E. Ricklefs, G. L. Gentry, W. Hallwachs, P. D. Coley, et al. (2005)
PNAS 102, 17384-17387
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Can rDNA analyses of diverse fungal communities in soil and roots detect effects of environmental manipulations--a case study from tallgrass prairie..
A. Jumpponen and L. C. Johnson (2005)
Mycologia 97, 1177-1194
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Fine-scale processes regulate the response of extreme events to global climate change.
N. S. Diffenbaugh, J. S. Pal, R. J. Trapp, and F. Giorgi (2005)
PNAS 102, 15774-15778
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Regional vegetation die-off in response to global-change-type drought.
D. D. Breshears, N. S. Cobb, P. M. Rich, K. P. Price, C. D. Allen, R. G. Balice, W. H. Romme, J. H. Kastens, M. L. Floyd, J. Belnap, et al. (2005)
PNAS 102, 15144-15148
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Population effects of increased climate variation.
J. M Drake (2005)
Proc R Soc B 272, 1823-1827
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Insurance in a Climate of Change.
E. Mills (2005)
Science 309, 1040-1044
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Effect of excessive environmental heat on core temperature in critically ill patients. An observational study during the 2003 European heat wave.
F. Stephan, S. Ghiglione, F. Decailliot, L. Yakhou, P. Duvaldestin, and P. Legrand (2005)
Br. J. Anaesth. 94, 39-45
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Municipal Heat Wave Response Plans.
S. M. Bernard and M. A. McGeehin (2004)
Am J Public Health 94, 1520-1522
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
More Intense, More Frequent, and Longer Lasting Heat Waves in the 21st Century.
G. A. Meehl and C. Tebaldi (2004)
Science 305, 994-997
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Modifiers of the Temperature and Mortality Association in Seven US Cities.
M. S. O'Neill, A. Zanobetti, and J. Schwartz (2003)
Am. J. Epidemiol. 157, 1074-1082
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Rainfall Variability, Carbon Cycling, and Plant Species Diversity in a Mesic Grassland.
A. K. Knapp, P. A. Fay, J. M. Blair, S. L. Collins, M. D. Smith, J. D. Carlisle, C. W. Harper, B. T. Danner, M. S. Lett, and J. K. McCarron (2002)
Science 298, 2202-2205
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Climate, changing phenology, and other life history traits: Nonlinearity and match-mismatch to the environment.
N. Chr. Stenseth and A. Mysterud (2002)
PNAS 99, 13379-13381
   Full Text »    PDF »
Climate variability and Ross River virus transmission.
S Tong, P Bi, K Donald, and A J McMichael (2002)
J Epidemiol Community Health 56, 617-621
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Climate change hastens population extinctions.
J. F. McLaughlin, J. J. Hellmann, C. L. Boggs, and P. R. Ehrlich (2002)
PNAS 99, 6070-6074
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Temporal and Spatial Variation of Episodic Wind Erosion in Unburned and Burned Semiarid Shrubland.
J. J. Whicker, D. D. Breshears, P. T. Wasiolek, T. B. Kirchner, R. A. Tavani, D. A. Schoep, and J. C. Rodgers (2002)
J. Environ. Qual. 31, 599-612
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Mycotoxins.
R. A. Etzel (2002)
JAMA 287, 425-427
   Full Text »    PDF »
Genetic shift in photoperiodic response correlated with global warming.
W. E. Bradshaw and C. M. Holzapfel (2001)
PNAS
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Variation Among Biomes in Temporal Dynamics of Aboveground Primary Production.
A. K. Knapp and M. D. Smith (2001)
Science 291, 481-484
   Abstract »    Full Text »
Climate change hastens population extinctions.
J. F. McLaughlin, J. J. Hellmann, C. L. Boggs, and P. R. Ehrlich (2002)
PNAS 99, 6070-6074
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
From the Cover: Genetic shift in photoperiodic response correlated with global warming.
W. E. Bradshaw and C. M. Holzapfel (2001)
PNAS 98, 14509-14511
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »


To Advertise     Find Products

Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)