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Science 8 September 2000:
Vol. 289. no. 5485, pp. 1766 - 1769
DOI: 10.1126/science.289.5485.1766
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Reports

Cholera Dynamics and El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Mercedes Pascual,1* Xavier Rodó,2 Stephen P. Ellner,3 Rita Colwell,4 Menno J. Bouma5

Analysis of a monthly 18-year cholera time series from Bangladesh shows that the temporal variability of cholera exhibits an interannual component at the dominant frequency of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Results from nonlinear time series analysis support a role for both ENSO and previous disease levels in the dynamics of cholera. Cholera patterns are linked to the previously described changes in the atmospheric circulation of south Asia and, consistent with these changes, to regional temperature anomalies.

1 Center of Marine Biotechnology, University of Maryland Biotechnology Institute, 701 East Pratt Street, Suite 236, Columbus Center, Baltimore, MD 21202, USA, and Biology Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA.
2 Climate Research Group, PCB-University of Barcelona, and Department of Ecology, University of Barcelona, 08028 Barcelona, Catalunya, Spain.
3 Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA.
4 Center of Marine Biotechnology, University of Maryland Biotechnology Institute, Baltimore, MD 21202, USA, and Department of Cell and Molecular Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, College Park, MD 20742, USA.
5 Department of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, University of London, London WC1E 7HT, UK.
*   To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: mercedes{at}pampero.umbi.umd.edu

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