Note to users. If you're seeing this message, it means that your browser cannot find this page's style/presentation instructions -- or possibly that you are using a browser that does not support current Web standards. Find out more about why this message is appearing, and what you can do to make your experience of our site the best it can be.
AAAS Store

Site Tools

  • AAAS
  • Subscribe
  • Feedback

Site Search

Search Advanced

Science 28 January 2000:
Vol. 287. no. 5453, pp. 650 - 654
DOI: 10.1126/science.287.5453.650
Prev | Table of Contents | Next

Reports

A Tale of Two Futures: HIV and Antiretroviral Therapy in San Francisco

S. M. Blower, 1* H. B. Gershengorn, 1 R. M. Grant 2

The effect of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in preventing human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections and averting acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) deaths in the San Francisco gay community over the next 10 years was predicted. A transmission model was coupled with a statistical approach that enabled inclusion of a high degree of uncertainty in the potential treatment effects of ART (in terms of infectivity and survival), increase in risky behavior, and rate of emergence of drug resistance. Increasing the usage of ART in San Francisco would decrease the AIDS death rate and could substantially reduce the incidence rate.

1 Department of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, 513 Parnassus, Box 0414, San Francisco, CA 94143-0414, USA.
2 Gladstone Institute of Virology and Immunology, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94141-9100, USA.
*   To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: sally{at}itsa.ucsf.edu

Read the Full Text


THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN CITED BY OTHER ARTICLES:
Heterogeneity and Network Structure in the Dynamics of Diffusion: Comparing Agent-Based and Differential Equation Models.
H. Rahmandad and J. Sterman (2008)
Management Science 54, 998-1014
   Abstract »    PDF »
Biological and demographic causes of high HIV and sexually transmitted disease prevalence in men who have sex with men.
S. M Goodreau and M. R Golden (2007)
Sex. Transm. Inf. 83, 458-462
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Transmitted Resistance: An Overview and Its Potential Relevance to the Management of HIV-Infected Persons in Resource-Limited Settings.
B. O. Taiwo and R. Murphy (2007)
J Int Assoc Physicians AIDS Care (Chic Ill) 6, 188-197
   Abstract »    PDF »
Prevalence and determinants of transmitted antiretroviral drug resistance in HIV-1 infection.
C. L. Booth and A. M. Geretti (2007)
J. Antimicrob. Chemother. 59, 1047-1056
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Narrative Review: Antiretroviral Therapy to Prevent the Sexual Transmission of HIV-1.
M. S. Cohen, C. Gay, A. D.M. Kashuba, S. Blower, and L. Paxton (2007)
Ann Intern Med 146, 591-601
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Increases in sexually transmitted infections and sexual risk behaviour without a concurrent increase in HIV incidence among men who have sex with men in San Francisco: a suggestion of HIV serosorting?.
H-H M Truong, T Kellogg, J D Klausner, M H Katz, J Dilley, K Knapper, S Chen, R Prabhu, R M Grant, B Louie, et al. (2006)
Sex. Transm. Inf. 82, 461-466
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Predicting the epidemiological impact of antiretroviral allocation strategies in KwaZulu-Natal: The effect of the urban-rural divide.
D. P. Wilson, J. Kahn, and S. M. Blower (2006)
PNAS 103, 14228-14233
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Sexuality and Sexual Risk Behavior in HIV-Positive Men Who Have Sex With Men.
N. M. C. van Kesteren, H. J. Hospers, G. Kok, and P. van Empelen (2005)
Qual Health Res 15, 145-168
   Abstract »    PDF »
Predicting the Impact of a Nonsterilizing Vaccine against Human Immunodeficiency Virus.
M. P. Davenport, R. M. Ribeiro, D. L. Chao, and A. S. Perelson (2004)
J. Virol. 78, 11340-11351
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Time Trends in Primary HIV-1 Drug Resistance Among Recently Infected Persons.
R. M. Grant, F. M. Hecht, M. Warmerdam, L. Liu, T. Liegler, C. J. Petropoulos, N. S. Hellmann, M. Chesney, M. P. Busch, and J. O. Kahn (2002)
JAMA 288, 181-188
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Impact of Highly Active Antiretroviral Treatment on HIV Seroincidence Among Men Who Have Sex With Men: San Francisco.
M. H. Katz, S. K. Schwarcz, T. A. Kellogg, J. D. Klausner, J. W. Dilley, S. Gibson, and W. McFarland (2002)
Am J Public Health 92, 388-394
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
The Changing Picture of the HIV/AIDS Epidemic.
G. IPPOLITO, V. GALATI, D. SERRAINO, and E. GIRARDI (2001)
Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. 946, 1-12
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Live attenuated HIV vaccines: Predicting the tradeoff between efficacy and safety.
S. M. Blower, K. Koelle, D. E. Kirschner, and J. Mills (2001)
PNAS 98, 3618-3623
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Effect of Antiretroviral Therapy on HIV Shedding in Semen.
P. F. Barroso, M. Schechter, P. Gupta, M. F. Melo, M. Vieira, F. C. Murta, Y. Souza, and L. H. Harrison (2000)
Ann Intern Med 133, 280-284
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Reversibility of HIV Drug Resistance.
M. P. Davenport;, S. M. Blower, H. B. Gershengorn, and R. M. Grant; (2000)
Science 288, 1299a-1299
   Full Text »
Preventing Sexual Transmission of HIV -- New Ideas from Sub-Saharan Africa.
M. S. Cohen (2000)
N. Engl. J. Med. 342, 970-972
   Full Text »


ADVERTISEMENT
Click Me!

ADVERTISEMENT
Click Me!

To Advertise     Find Products