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Science 25 June 1999:
Vol. 284. no. 5423, pp. 2156 - 2159
DOI: 10.1126/science.284.5423.2156
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Reports

On the Weakening Relationship Between the Indian Monsoon and ENSO

K. Krishna Kumar, 1*dagger Balaji Rajagopalan, 2 Mark A. Cane 2

Analysis of the 140-year historical record suggests that the inverse relationship between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian summer monsoon (weak monsoon arising from warm ENSO event) has broken down in recent decades. Two possible reasons emerge from the analyses. A southeastward shift in the Walker circulation anomalies associated with ENSO events may lead to a reduced subsidence over the Indian region, thus favoring normal monsoon conditions. Additionally, increased surface temperatures over Eurasia in winter and spring, which are a part of the midlatitude continental warming trend, may favor the enhanced land-ocean thermal gradient conducive to a strong monsoon. These observations raise the possibility that the Eurasian warming in recent decades helps to sustain the monsoon rainfall at a normal level despite strong ENSO events.

1 International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate Prediction, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO) of Columbia University, Post Office Box 1000, Route 9W, Palisades, NY 10964-8000, USA.
2 LDEO of Columbia University, Post Office Box 1000, Route 9W, Palisades, NY 10964-8000, USA.
*   Permanent address: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr. Homi Bhabha Road, Pashan, Pune 411008, India.

dagger    To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: krishna{at}iri.ldeo.columbia.edu

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