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Science 8 May 1998: Vol. 280. no. 5365, pp. 912 - 915 DOI: 10.1126/science.280.5365.912
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Reports
Chaos, Persistence, and Evolution of Strain Structure in Antigenically Diverse Infectious Agents
Sunetra Gupta,
*
Neil Ferguson,
Roy Anderson
The effects of selection by host immune responses on transmission
dynamics was analyzed in a broad class of antigenically diverse
pathogens. Strong selection can cause pathogen populations to stably
segregate into discrete strains with nonoverlapping antigenic
repertoires. However, over a wide range of intermediate levels of
selection, strain structure is unstable, varying in a manner that is
either cyclical or chaotic. These results have implications for the
interpretation of longitudinal epidemiological data on strain or
serotype abundance, design of surveillance strategies, and the
assessment of multivalent vaccine trials.
Wellcome Trust Centre for the Epidemiology of Infectious Disease,
Zoology Department, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1
3PS, UK.
*
To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail:
sunetra.gupta{at}zoology.ox.ac.uk
Read the Full Text
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