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Science 8 May 1998:
Vol. 280. no. 5365, pp. 855 - 860
DOI: 10.1126/science.280.5365.855
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Review

Biodemographic Trajectories of Longevity

James W. Vaupel, * James R. Carey, Kaare Christensen, Thomas E. Johnson, Anatoli I. Yashin, Niels V. Holm, Ivan A. Iachine, Väinö Kannisto, Aziz A. Khazaeli, Pablo Liedo, Valter D. Longo, Yi Zeng, Kenneth G. Manton, James W. Curtsinger

Old-age survival has increased substantially since 1950. Death rates decelerate with age for insects, worms, and yeast, as well as humans. This evidence of extended postreproductive survival is puzzling. Three biodemographic insights--concerning the correlation of death rates across age, individual differences in survival chances, and induced alterations in age patterns of fertility and mortality--offer clues and suggest research on the failure of complicated systems, on new demographic equations for evolutionary theory, and on fertility-longevity interactions. Nongenetic changes account for increases in human life-spans to date. Explication of these causes and the genetic license for extended survival, as well as discovery of genes and other survival attributes affecting longevity, will lead to even longer lives.

J. W. Vaupel is at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, D-18057 Rostock, Germany; Odense University Medical School, DK-5000 Odense C, Denmark; the Center for Demographic Studies, Duke University, Durham, NC 27706, USA; and Andrus Gerontology Center, the University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089-0191, USA. J. R. Carey is in the Department of Entomology, University of California at Davis, Davis, CA 95616-8584, USA. K. Christensen, N. V. Holm, I. A. Iachine, and V. Kannisto are at Odense University Medical School, DK-5000 Odense C, Denmark. T. E. Johnson is at the Institute for Behavioral Genetics, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309-0447, USA. A. I. Yashin is at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, D-18057 Rostock, Germany, and the Center for Demographic Studies, Duke University, Durham, NC 27706, USA. A. A. Khazaeli and J. W. Curtsinger are in the Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA. P. Liedo is with El Colegio de la Frontera Sur, Tapachula 30700, Mexico. V. D. Longo is at the Andrus Gerontology Center at the University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089-0191, USA. Y. Zeng is at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, D-18057 Rostock, Germany, and the Institute of Population Research, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China. K. G. Manton is at the Center for Demographic Studies at Duke University, Durham, NC 27706, USA.
*   To whom correspondence should be addressed at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Doberaner Strasse 114, D-18057 Rostock, Germany. E-mail: jwv{at}demogr.mpg.de

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