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Science 8 May 1998:
Vol. 280. no. 5365, pp. 855 - 860
DOI: 10.1126/science.280.5365.855
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Review
Biodemographic Trajectories of Longevity
James W. Vaupel,
*
James R. Carey,
Kaare Christensen,
Thomas E. Johnson,
Anatoli I. Yashin,
Niels V. Holm,
Ivan A. Iachine,
Väinö Kannisto,
Aziz A. Khazaeli,
Pablo Liedo,
Valter D. Longo,
Yi Zeng,
Kenneth G. Manton,
James W. Curtsinger
Old-age survival has increased substantially since 1950. Death
rates decelerate with age for insects, worms, and yeast, as well as
humans. This evidence of extended postreproductive survival is
puzzling. Three biodemographic insights--concerning the correlation of
death rates across age, individual differences in survival chances, and
induced alterations in age patterns of fertility and mortality--offer
clues and suggest research on the failure of complicated systems, on
new demographic equations for evolutionary theory, and on
fertility-longevity interactions. Nongenetic changes account for
increases in human life-spans to date. Explication of these causes and
the genetic license for extended survival, as well as discovery of
genes and other survival attributes affecting longevity, will lead to
even longer lives.
J. W. Vaupel is at the Max Planck Institute
for Demographic Research, D-18057 Rostock, Germany; Odense University
Medical School, DK-5000 Odense C, Denmark; the Center for Demographic
Studies, Duke University, Durham, NC 27706, USA; and Andrus Gerontology
Center, the University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA
90089-0191, USA. J. R. Carey is in the Department of
Entomology, University of California at Davis, Davis, CA 95616-8584,
USA. K. Christensen, N. V. Holm, I. A. Iachine, and V. Kannisto are at Odense University Medical School, DK-5000 Odense C,
Denmark. T. E. Johnson is at the Institute for Behavioral
Genetics, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309-0447,
USA. A. I. Yashin is at the Max Planck Institute for
Demographic Research, D-18057 Rostock, Germany, and the Center for
Demographic Studies, Duke University, Durham, NC 27706, USA.
A. A. Khazaeli and J. W. Curtsinger are in the Department of
Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN
55108, USA. P. Liedo is with El Colegio de la Frontera Sur,
Tapachula 30700, Mexico. V. D. Longo is at the Andrus Gerontology
Center at the University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA
90089-0191, USA. Y. Zeng is at the Max Planck Institute for
Demographic Research, D-18057 Rostock, Germany, and the Institute of
Population Research, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China. K. G. Manton is at the Center for Demographic Studies at Duke University,
Durham, NC 27706, USA.
*
To whom correspondence should be addressed at the Max Planck
Institute for Demographic Research, Doberaner Strasse 114, D-18057 Rostock, Germany. E-mail: jwv{at}demogr.mpg.de
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