Simulated Increase of Hurricane Intensities in a CO2-Warmed Climate
Thomas R. Knutson,
*
Robert E. Tuleya,
Yoshio Kurihara
Hurricanes can inflict catastrophic property damage and loss of
human life. Thus, it is important to determine how the character of
these powerful storms could change in response to greenhouse gas-induced global warming. The impact of climate warming on hurricane intensities was investigated with a regional, high-resolution, hurricane prediction model. In a case study, 51 western Pacific storm
cases under present-day climate conditions were compared with 51 storm
cases under high-CO2 conditions. More idealized experiments
were also performed. The large-scale initial conditions were derived
from a global climate model. For a sea surface temperature warming of
about 2.2°C, the simulations yielded hurricanes that were more
intense by 3 to 7 meters per second (5 to 12 percent) for wind speed
and 7 to 20 millibars for central surface pressure.
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration, Post Office Box 308, Princeton, NJ 08542, USA.
*
To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail:
tk{at}gfdl.gov
