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Science 21 July 1995:
Vol. 269. no. 5222, pp. 347 - 350
DOI: 10.1126/science.269.5222.347
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Articles

The Future of Biodiversity

Stuart L. Pimm 1, Gareth J. Russell 1, John L. Gittleman 1, and Thomas M. Brooks 1

1 Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996, USA.

Recent extinction rates are 100 to 1000 times their pre-human levels in well-known, but taxonomically diverse groups from widely different environments. If all species currently deemed "threatened" become extinct in the next century, then future extinction rates will be 10 times recent rates. Some threatened species will survive the century, but many species not now threatened will succumb. Regions rich in species found only within them (endemics) dominate the global patterns of extinction. Although new technology provides details of habitat losses, estimates of future extinctions are hampered by our limited knowledge of which areas are rich in endemics.


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