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Science 5 May 1995:
Vol. 268. no. 5211, pp. 710 - 713
DOI: 10.1126/science.268.5211.710
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Articles

Interannual and Interdecadal Variability in 335 Years of Central England Temperatures

G. Plaut 1, M. Ghil 2, and R. Vautard 3

1 Institut Non-Linéaire de Nice, 1361 route des Lucioles, F-06560 Valbonne, France
2 Department of Atmospheric Sciences and Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA.
3 Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique du Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Ecole Normale Supérieure, 24 rue Lhomond, F-75231 Paris Cedex 5, France

Understanding the natural variability of climate is important for predicting its near-term evolution. Models of the oceans' thermohaline and wind-driven circulation show low-frequency oscillations. Long instrumental records can help validate the oscillatory behavior of these models. Singular spectrum analysis applied to the 335-year-long central England temperature (CET) record has identified climate oscillations with interannual (7- to 8-year) and interdecadal (15- and 25-year) periods, probably related to the North Atlantic's wind-driven and thermohaline circulation, respectively. Statistical prediction of oscillatory variability shows CETs decreasing toward the end of this decade and rising again into the middle of the next.

Submitted on October 19, 1994
Accepted on February 15, 1995


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