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Science 10 February 1995:
Vol. 267. no. 5199, pp. 856 - 859
DOI: 10.1126/science.267.5199.856
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Articles

Forearc Deformation and Great Subduction Earthquakes: Implications for Cascadia Offshore Earthquake Potential

Robert McCaffrey 1 and Chris Goldfinger 2

1 Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY 12180, USA.
2 College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA.

The maximum size of thrust earthquakes at the world's subduction zones appears to be limited by anelastic deformation of the overriding plate. Anelastic strain in weak forearcs and roughness of the plate interface produced by faults cutting the forearc may limit the size of thrust earthquakes by inhibiting the buildup of elastic strain energy or slip propagation or both. Recently discovered active strike-slip faults in the submarine forearc of the Cascadia subduction zone show that the upper plate there deforms rapidly in response to arc-parallel shear. Thus, Cascadia, as a result of its weak, deforming upper plate, may be the type of subduction zone at which great (moment magnitude ap 9) thrust earthquakes do not occur.

Submitted on September 13, 1994
Accepted on December 14, 1994


THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN CITED BY OTHER ARTICLES:
Rupture Kinematics of the 2005 Mw 8.6 Nias-Simeulue Earthquake from the Joint Inversion of Seismic and Geodetic Data.
A. O. Konca, V. Hjorleifsdottir, T.-R. A. Song, J.-P. Avouac, D. V. Helmberger, C. Ji, K. Sieh, R. Briggs, and A. Meltzner (2007)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 97, S307-S322
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Tectonics of the Neogene Cascadia forearc basin: Investigations of a deformed late Miocene unconformity.
L. C. McNeill, L. C. McNeill, C. Goldfinger, L. D. Kulm, and R. S. Yeats (2000)
Geological Society of America Bulletin 112, 1209-1224
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Newly identified strike-slip plate boundary in the northeastern Arabian Sea.
N. Kukowski, T. Schillhorn, E. R. Flueh, and K. Huhn (2000)
Geology 28, 355-358
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
The effects of upper plate deformation on records of prehistoric Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes.
L. C. McNeill, C. Goldfinger, R. S. Yeats, and L. D. Kulm (1998)
Geological Society, London, Special Publications 146, 321-342
   Abstract »    PDF »


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