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Science 13 January 1995:
Vol. 267. no. 5195, pp. 199 - 205
DOI: 10.1126/science.267.5195.199
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Articles

Prospects for Larger or More Frequent Earthquakes in the Los Angeles Metropolitan Region

James F. Dolan 1, Kerry Sieh 1, Thomas K. Rockwell 2, Robert S. Yeats 3, John Shaw 4, John Suppe 5, Gary J. Huftile 3, and Eldon M. Gath 6

1 Seismological Laboratory 252-21, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125, USA. Earthquake Geology Group at the Southern California Earthquake Center, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA.
2 Department of Geological Sciences, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA 92182, USA. Earthquake Geology Group at the Southern California Earthquake Center, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA.
3 Department of Geological Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA. Earthquake Geology Group at the Southern California Earthquake Center, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA.
4 E & P Technology Department, Texaco, Houston, TX 77042, USA. Earthquake Geology Group at the Southern California Earthquake Center, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA.
5 Department of Geological and Geophysical Sciences, Princeton Univesity, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA. Earthquake Geology Group at the Southern California Earthquake Center, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA.
6 Leighton and Associates, Irvine, CA 92714, USA. Earthquake Geology Group at the Southern California Earthquake Center, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA.

Far too few moderate earthquakes have occurred within the Los Angeles, California, metropolitan region during the 200-year-long historic period to account for observed strain accumulation, indicating that the historic era represents either a lull between clusters of moderate earthquakes or part of a centuries-long interseismic period between much larger (moment magnitude, Mw, 7.2 to 7.6) events. Geologic slip rates and relations between moment magnitude, average coseismic slip, and rupture area show that either of these hypotheses is possible, but that the latter is the more plausible of the two. The average time between Mw 7.2 to 7.6 earthquakes from a combination of six fault systems within the metropolitan area was estimated to be about 140 years.


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