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Science 2 September 1994:
Vol. 265. no. 5177, pp. 1451 - 1454
DOI: 10.1126/science.8073289
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Articles

Science, Vol 265, Issue 5177, 1451-1454
Copyright © 1994 by American Association for the Advancement of Science

articles

Prophylactic vaccines, risk behavior change, and the probability of eradicating HIV in San Francisco

SM Blower and AR McLean

Epidemiology Department, School of Public Health, University of California at Berkeley 94720.

Theory is linked with data to assess the probability of eradicating human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in San Francisco through the use of prophylactic vaccines. The necessary vaccine efficacy levels and population coverage levels for eradication are quantified. The likely impact of risk behavior changes on vaccination campaigns is assessed. The results show it is unlikely that vaccines will be able to eradicate HIV in San Francisco unless they are combined with considerable reductions in risk behaviors. Furthermore, if risk behavior increases as the result of a vaccination campaign, then vaccination could result in a perverse outcome by increasing the severity of the epidemic.


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