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Science 18 February 1994:
Vol. 263. no. 5149, pp. 961 - 963
DOI: 10.1126/science.8310293
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Articles

Science, Vol 263, Issue 5149, 961-963
Copyright © 1994 by American Association for the Advancement of Science

articles

Antigenic diversity and the transmission dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum

S Gupta, K Trenholme, RM Anderson, and KP Day

Department of Zoology, Oxford University, United Kingdom.

The average age of humans at their first infection with Plasmodium falciparum is typically less than 1 year in most endemic areas. This has been interpreted as evidence of the high transmissibility of the parasite, with the implication that control of malaria will require high levels of coverage with a potential vaccine. This interpretation is challenged by mathematical models that demonstrate that the long period required to develop immunity to malaria permits a high risk (or low average age) of infection even when parasite transmissibility is low. Patterns of seroconversion to five antigenically distinct isolates of P. falciparum in a highly malarious area of Papua New Guinea indicate that each is only mildly transmissible and that malaria, as a construct of several such independently transmitted strains, has a basic reproductive rate (or transmissibility) that is an order of magnitude lower than other estimates.


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