Note to users. If you're seeing this message, it means that your browser cannot find this page's style/presentation instructions -- or possibly that you are using a browser that does not support current Web standards. Find out more about why this message is appearing, and what you can do to make your experience of our site the best it can be.


Science 8 January 1993:
Vol. 259. no. 5092, pp. 199 - 203
DOI: 10.1126/science.259.5092.199

Articles

A 100-Year Average Recurrence Interval for the San Andreas Fault at Wrightwood, California

Thomas E. Fumal 1, David P. Schwartz 1, Silvio K. Pezzopane 2, and Ray J. Weldon II 2

1 U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA 94025
2 University of Oregon, Eugene, OR 97403

Evidence for five large earthquakes during the past five centuries along the San Andreas fault zone 70 kilometers northeast of Los Angeles, California, indicates that the average recurrence interval and the temporal variability are significantly smaller than previously thought. Rapid sedimentation during the past 5000 years in a 150-meter-wide structural depression has produced a greater than 21-meter-thick sequence of debris flow and stream deposits interbedded with more than 50 datable peat layers. Fault scarps, colluvial wedges, fissure infills, upward termination of ruptures, and tilted and folded deposits above listric faults provide evidence for large earthquakes that occurred in A.D. 1857, 1812, and about 1700, 1610, and 1470.

Submitted on August 6, 1992
Accepted on November 20, 1992


THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN CITED BY OTHER ARTICLES:
An Upper Cretaceous sag pond deposit: Implications for recognition of local seismicity and surface rupture along the Kaibab monocline, Utah.
E.L. Simpson, M.C. Wizevich, H.L. Hilbert-Wolf, S.E. Tindall, J.J. Bernard, and W.S. Simpson (2009)
Geology 37, 967-970
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Deducing Paleoearthquake Timing and Recurrence from Paleoseismic Data, Part I: Evaluation of New Bayesian Markov-Chain Monte Carlo Simulation Methods Applied to Excavations with Continuous Peat Growth.
G. E. Hilley and J. J. Young (2008)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 98, 383-406
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Deducing Paleoearthquake Timing and Recurrence from Paleoseismic Data, Part II: Analysis of Paleoseismic Excavation Data and Earthquake Behavior along the Central and Southern San Andreas Fault.
G. E. Hilley and J. J. Young (2008)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 98, 407-439
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Paleoearthquakes on the Southern San Andreas Fault, Wrightwood, California, 3000 to 1500 B.C.: A New Method for Evaluating Paleoseismic Evidence and Earthquake Horizons.
K. M. Scharer, R. J. Weldon II, T. E. Fumal, and G. P. Biasi (2007)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 97, 1054-1093
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Millennial Recurrence of Large Earthquakes on the Haiyuan Fault near Songshan, Gansu Province, China.
J. Liu-Zeng, Y. Klinger, X. Xu, C. Lasserre, G. Chen, W. Chen, P. Tapponnier, and B. Zhang (2007)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 97, 14-34
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Estimating Surface Rupture Length and Magnitude of Paleoearthquakes from Point Measurements of Rupture Displacement.
G. P. Biasi and R. J. Weldon II (2006)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 96, 1612-1623
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
The Earth Has a Future.
S. I. Dutch (2006)
Geosphere 2, 113-124
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
A 2000-Year-Long Paleoseismologic Record of Earthquakes along the Central North Anatolian Fault, from Trenches at Alayurt, Turkey.
(2003)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 93, 1935-1954
San Andreas Fault Zone, California: M >=5.5 Earthquake History.
(2002)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 92, 2555-2601
Evidence for Two Surface Ruptures in the Past 500 Years on the San Andreas Fault at Frazier Mountain, California.
(2002)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 92, 2689-2703
Structure and Earthquake Offsets on the San Andreas Fault at the Wrightwood, California, Paleoseismic Site.
(2002)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 92, 2704-2725
Evidence for Large Earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault at the Wrightwood, California, Paleoseismic Site: A.D. 500 to Present.
(2002)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 92, 2726-2760
Paleoseismic Event Dating and the Conditional Probability of Large Earthquakes on the Southern San Andreas Fault, California.
(2002)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 92, 2761-2781
Paleoseismology of the San Andreas Fault at Plunge Creek, near San Bernardino, Southern California.
(2002)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 92, 2803-2840
Paleoseismologic Evidence for a >8 Ka Age of the Most Recent Surface Rupture on the Eastern Sierra Madre Fault, Northern Los Angeles Metropolitan Region, California.
(2001)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 91, 232-249
Quaternary faulting in the southern Mississippi embayment and implications for tectonics and seismicity in an intraplate setting.
R. T. Cox, R. B. Van Arsdale, J. B. Harris, S. L. Forman, W. Beard, and J. Galluzzi (2000)
Geological Society of America Bulletin 112, 1724-1735
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Estimating prehistoric earthquake magnitude from point measurements of surface rupture.
M. A. Hemphill-Haley and R. J. Weldon II (1999)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 89, 1264-1279
   Abstract »    PDF »
Seismic hazards in Southern California: Probable earthquakes, 1994 to 2024.
Working Group on California Earthquake Probabiliti (1995)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 85, 379-439
   Abstract »    PDF »
Fault slip rates and earthquake histories for active faults in southern California.
M. D. Petersen and S. G. Wesnousky (1994)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 84, 1608-1649
   Abstract »    PDF »
Static stress changes and the triggering of earthquakes.
G. C. P. King, R. S. Stein, and J. Lin (1994)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 84, 935-953
   Abstract »    PDF »
Empirical earthquake probabilities from observed recurrence intervals.
J. C. Savage (1994)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 84, 219-221
   Abstract »    PDF »



To Advertise     Find Products


Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)